It's another op-ex Friday, that means there's typically a pin until 2 om when most contracts have been fulfilled and then the market can move as it wishes, it's how 3C moves the last 2 hours that is important because that's typically where we will pick up the next trading day, even over a weekend.
It seems clear to me that the inverse H&S base was meant to be.
There's good news all around for us, short term and longer term. Short term our trades set yesterday look like they should do well, and after that the market is in even more trouble with the carry lever broken, we saw this last week with a 180 degree opposite correlation in the carry pairs and ES, take a look at overnight which was ramped by a falling yen, but more so the Yen than the carry pairs.
EUR/JPY vs ES (purple) 5 min, where's the correlation?
The same , but 1 min. This means 1 thing for the market after it gets done with this little consolidation/base, well it means at least, no good can come from the carry pairs anymore.
I do know it is Yen based because this is the Yen vs ES (purple) and there's an inverse relationship, but on a larger scale it too is broken. I suspect, the Yen won't be down too long...
5 min positive in the Yen, there are longer charts too, no good can come from this for the market.
While TF still has a 15 min positive, I think this is about the last hurrah before all the 50-day averages are broke and retail traders are really lost without their 50-day moving averages.
We'll keep an eye out, but today feels like a day to just relax a bit a let the market flow, it seems we have a pretty good idea where it's going and where it will be.
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