No smoking guns, but somethings of interest.
Usually you'd think one might be looking for protection near the end of the day at the end of the week over an uncertain weekend, meaning buying VIX futures...
This is the pre-2 p.m. SPY negative divegrence 1 min/intraday I mentioned that led to the 2 p.m. stop run.
This is VXX /UVXY and it seemingly selling off at that same stop run from the SPY divegrence when you might think it would be at least in line going in to the weekend.
And the larger 2 min chart at both yesterday's late afternoon decline in the market and the pre-2 p.m. move today in VIX, it almost looks like the asset is prepping for a move down, which I will not short, but it does move opposite the market.
And a 3 min chart showing the exact same (details are sometimes better than trends)
At the same time, remember what I said about an apparent attempt to support/lift HYG to activate the SPY arbitrage and support the market (VXX down is part of that), here's HYG with a pretty positive intraday chart.
I wouldn't call these smoking guns, but they certainly are curious, I'd be a lot more nervous about those short duration long positions if I had not seen things like this.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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