Monday, December 23, 2013

And There goes VIX FUTURES (not spot or short term futures)

These are the real deal, not the derivatives, these are the real VIX futures so this is one of the signs we want to see along with others that have started.

The lows in VIX futures are being sharply accumulated, or a reach for protection.

Hypothetically, the trade I'd probably be most interested in (well let me say with the way the Spot VIX looks, I would want and do have a UVXY long trading position that can be used as a swing long) would be VXX calls or perhaps IWM puts, it depends on where the best signals are and the best discounted premium, obviously with VXX down, the calls are going to be at a discount to prices Friday.

The optimal set up is the VIX stays rather flat or creates the reversal process which need not be very big for this morning's move, WHILE THE DIVERGENCES MOVE UP VERY STRONGLY LIKE THIS AND THROUGH LONGER TIMEFRAMES.

We have a view of the underlying trade, but price would still be at the same level and the options discounted, so we'd know the probabilities are very high for the reversal, but we can still enter at a discounted price which helps on the risk side too to lower your trade risk.

Conversely the same, but opposite could be done with a number of assets, but say IWM, we'd want to see deep leading negatives as IWM is either moving up or just losing momentum, but before it makes a reversal down.

The same could be applied to Industry groups like Financials, Tech or even individual stocks, it depends on where the best looking set ups are.

In any case, the above chart is nothing but good news for the set up we are looking at and it has gained quite a bit more since I started this post.

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