In the trading portfolio I'm running a little bigger than I'd like, normally I feel I can diversify enough with 6 positions, why make myself crazy tracking 20 when that's "Modern Portfolio Theory" which I'd call "Over-diversification", but Wall Street had to sell it to sell one of their most popular products at the time which most of you probably had at one point or another from your job, the MUTUAL FUND, different than a hedge fund. MF's are mainly long only funds, thus some of you may have taken a really bad beating in them at some point and sold at the bottom.
By law Mutual Funds can't invest more than 5% in any one position so they must have at least 20 positions (5% x 20=100%), this is also where the (I'll say myth) of over-diversification came from. Unlike Hedge Funds that can do just about whatever they want, but you can't be part of one unless you are an "Accredited Investor", Mutual Funds had to sell the notion of this larger diversification to sell the concept of their funds from a regulatory standpoint.
Many do not believe in modern portfolio theory anymore, I think it depends on your individual circumstance, but for me, it's too much.
So the positions open in the trading portfolio, which as of now has hit every swing whether we were long or short, are now positioned largely short with a few longs.
In actuality, EVERY position is long, some though are inverse ETFs or bear ETFs, so the positions are (all long):
MCP
SPXU (3x short SPX)
SQQQ (3x short NASDAQ 100)
UVXY (2x long VIX Short Term Futures)
FAZ (3x short Financials)
IOC
DGAZ (3x short Natural Gas), a play on a UNG pullback.
That's 7 posiitons, about as big as I'd want to be in a trading portfolio (personal preference) and there are longs like IOC and MCP mixed in with the shorts. Typically if I'm bearish (trading) I'll want 75% of the portfolio short and 25% long or cash and vice versa for bullish.
As far as other positions that look interesting as I went through the watchlist...
XLK (Tech) short, I like TECS (long) 3x short Technology) as a play there or just short XLK or get puts.
XLF also is not looking too hot, (Financials), the open position there is FAZ which is 3x short Financials.
AMZN is showing some interesting weakness.
In the Financial arena, GS is showing some weakness
IOC looks interesting still as a long
GOOG looks interesting as a short, but I'm not sold on it beyond a trade at this point for new positions, I'd like to see some intermediate charts shape up or rather deteriorate more.
UNG is looking more like a pullback, but long term I love it so DGAZ is what I chose for that play (3x short natural gas).
SLV looks interesting, I'm keeping a close eye on that one.
MCP long still looks good.
SQQQ long (3x short QQQ) which is an open position.
PCLN has my interest, I'm just having a real hard time biting while it hasn't broke above $1200.
Transports are looking soft, IYT is a play on transports, you'd have to short it.
FXP which is "Short China" I like a lot, I'd love to see a pullback there.
I'll let you know what else comes up, I wanted to get a few of those out because I know some of you have positions in the above.
STILL BEING PATIENT
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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