Thursday, December 5, 2013

GLD Update

I don't see anything wrong with the little knee jerk in gold today on the eco data this morning, in fact the market has been ruthless about filling gaps the last 5 years and it did so today, the rounding reversal process is still in place, I think GLD is still at a very reasonable risk:reward area.

 Gold futures overnight and at 8:30 (red) with a 3C positive in to the entire a.m. trade.

The gap (yellow) from yesterday was filled and the reversal process remains intact and looking good.

Yesterday we didn't quite get confirmation, but not a bad signal either, today the gap was filled, it seems like no big deal to me honestly.

The move today was apparently accumulated so that's what we want to see.

On a longer intraday 3 min, again the move has a positive divegrence

The longer or bigger picture with accumulation of the stop run area is very clean and clear, I'd take this long trade all over again right here if I was not already in.

The longer term base structure is a "W" base, they often have a head fake on the second bottom which we have here, it often acts as a timing marker so we know we are close. The second base also has larger divergences as they normally do.

The idea since we called the top in 2011 while everyone else was a die hard gold bug was that we'd see at least an intermediate downtrend which we did. I believe now we will see an intermediate uptrend, whether counter trend or not, I'm not sure, it looks too big to be counter trend so that opens the possibility that a primary bull market opens up again in Gold, obviously someone has some inflation expectations they are preparing for, it's quite obviously smart money at this point.

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