Perspective

Not that this doesn't happen from time to time, when the market loses clarity, it does and as I said, it usually lasts a day or two and then suddenly things are very clear again as if they never had gotten muddy.

However in the moment, it's darn frustrating trying to make sense of seriously conflicting signals so I'm going to take some of my own advice, "Don't get lost in the lines" which means that those of us who watch the market every day see a day like yesterday when only one of the major averages was marginally positive and the rest down and we look at the bounce off the 1:30 lows and we say, "This is bullish", that's getting lost in the lines, looking at something so close for so long that you miss the big picture that's glaringly obvious if you just step back and let your eyes refocus.

I would maybe take some profits or add a position or a  hedge, if I had good reason. With the USO closure of the call position this afternoon, I had good, objective reason. Taking action based on a foggy market is like panicking in the fog, it's not going to get us anywhere. Sometimes the market requires you just be still instead of always trying to make something happen.

So after looking at everything from every angle the last two days, I can sum things up by taking a step back and remembering what the market looks like. I have no control over the NFP (or the likely knee-jerk reaction that gets faded-watchout for that tomorrow) but I do have objective evidence and I'm sticking with that until the next trade presents itself.

 The last cycle in the SPX/SPY started with accumulation and a prediction we'd see it because there were so many (hundreds) of shorts that were just close enough to a head fake move that they had to make it, but just far enough that they couldn't make it without the market's help, that's when I started talking about a market move up to facilitate that, a week later we started getting 3C evidence of it. The leading negative divegrence is more than enough for me, even if price squiggles like I drew in yellow at "A", "B" and "C".

That's about 2 weeks of pure accumulation by the way on a 30/60 min chart.

The Es / SPX Futures, I drew in the divergences and what they did to price, a relative divergence halted the uptrend and a leading negative started a downtrend, it's at a new leading negative low-60 min.

 Industry groups like the powerful Financials, just read the chart left to right, the areas of pure distribution I have been talking about are like the $21 area (whole number) at the yellow trendline, look at the difference in the divergence from that point on. Another new 3C leading negative low.

 And when the VIX shoots up, the market typically drops hard, this is one of the largest VIX BB squeezes and if you want to know what will power it (even though it seems to already be on its way)...

A never seen before VIX FUTURES (the real VIX that is traded) with a 4 hour leading positive divegrence right in the same area, that should send the ole VIX higher.

Looking at these charts is the first time today my heart beat slowed down and I got some perspective.