Leading Indicators

I'm really trying to find something that makes sense in this market whether currencies, commodities, bonds, industry groups, index futures and now Leading Indicators.

This was all I could find.

Like yesterday, HYG which is 1 of 3 arbitrage assets used to goose the market (the other two are TLT and VXX), sometimes HYG is used alone, we call it the SPY Arbitrage because Capital Context has a model we can look at, although the correlation of Treasuries (TLT) is off from the normal correlation of "Flight to safety" as the F_E_D owns a third of the bond market, these high quality collateral assets banks need are in or will be in more demand, especially the longer QE goes on. Remember I've said for the last 6 months that there's something that smart money likes about TLT, although I wasn't sure what. Well when you strip away supply and you have demand, the natural outcome is higher prices.

In any case, HYG is almost perfectly in line with the SPX, so unless VXX is severely underperforming the SPY Arbitrage doesn't work, HYG needs to be up, VXX either performing worse on a relative basis or moving down and typically TLT down activates the SPY arbitrage, but for the last 2 months I've seen them use HYG alone.

Both Sentiment indicators (professional, not retail) are negative, to get a feel for both intraday and longer term (which matches 3C, market breadth, etc), I grabbed 2 timeframes.

 This is FCT intraday, it's definitely moving risk off, maybe because of the unsure situation with the NFP tomorrow, but this is also the primary trend in FCT and our other Sentiment indicator.

Here FCT in blue vs the SPX in green is seen slowly falling off just like breadth did early in the year, then the first crash is near the May 22nd 1-day Key Reversal. The charts I've been trying to highlight that show increased leading negative divergence or distribution as the averages break above areas like Sept/Oct. Highs also sees an increased rate of decline in our sentiment indicator.

I didn't find much else of interest except the thinly trade High Yield Credit.

HY Credit, unlike HYG, is clearly up on the day, I don't know how it will close as it often has a way of changing on a dime, but I did find this odd.