Market Update

I'm going to show you what I mean by a "mushy" market, there just aren't a lot of things standing out, it's almost as if the carbon based traders are still in the Hamptons, however, in my experience, whenever a market is dull or seemingly boring, there's something just around the corner and that's what makes these dull markets so dangerous for anyone who lets their guard down.

One other red flag is the divergence between market averages, such as the Russell 2000 and say the NASDAQ 100 today (-1.15% vs -0.08%), it's pretty rare that the averages break up like this and have this much difference in relative performance, usually not a good sign.

However, for all the sloppiness today, just like the VIX, if you step back a bit, the picture becomes evident.

First the TICK.

 NYSE TICK over the last 2-days, there's very little in the way of a trend, except that most of the time is spent below the Zero line and most of the extremes are below -1000 and very few above +1000, only 1.

Today's intraday TICK, also trendless, just following the SPX mostly.

 DIA intraday negative, but along the lines of price.

The 2 min chart shows more of the bigger picture as it is more negative than price.

The 15 min chart shows the entire cycle from 10/9 to present, 3C is clearly leading negative to the point that it's indicating price is at the edge of stage 4 decline at any moment, we may even be seeing that in the IWM now.

*I've tried to make this trend clear as it is in all of the averages, the break above a major range where Dow $16k, NASDAQ 4k and SPX $1800 have all been found, but other important areas, especially for individual stocks which is why we expected this cycle from the 10/9 lows in the first place, it was based on hundreds of stocks that were almost there, but not quite and they weren't going to make it without support from the broad market, I think that was what was initially the catalyst for this cycle as we predicted it based on market behavior alone well before any positive divergences started to raise the probabilities of such a cycle and all of the market behavior predictions for this cycle were based on hundreds of "Short Sale" equities/watchlists.

 IWM 1 min is leaking badly, but intraday looks close to in line.

The 3 min chart shows the bigger picture of today's decline more clearly and in advance.

The large picture of the Channel Buster move is quite clearly negative and this sis why I'm such a fan of SRTY long as well as IWM puts.

QQQ 1 min intraday is also not that exciting. close to in line

Again though, step back just a bit to a 3 min chart and the signals become much more clear, almost as if today is a stall in price before dropping back down toward earth with gravity.

 Like the IWM, you go out a bit further to intermediate charts and things become much more clear. This is also a breakout above one of those areas as shown in the DIA, not the most broad area like the DIA, but one of resistance and a clear range.


SPY intraday definitely has a negative bias, but not much screaming on the charts.

2 min shows the same, but is much clearer, simpler terms of trend.

 This 4 hour chart is like the DIA long range, broad breakout and where distribution on that breakout becomes apparent as well as the reason for the breakout.

I've been trying to show you these areas as often as I can as they would represent, possibly, some of the largest head fake areas we've seen, of course the reason for that is there's about $3 trillion in liquidity in the market used to mark up prices that doesn't belong, so it's a unique point in the market's history, thus the swings in extremes.

 HYG Credit seeing a major fall off-ythis wa clear last week with negative divegrences in HYG.

JUNK Credit trades just like HYG.

 Here's HYG, JNK and HY Credit vs the SPX, as I have said, "Credit is not buying what Bernie is selling".

This is a more recent view, HY has fallen off pretty steeply to catch down to HYG.