Monday, December 2, 2013

MCP Position Follow Up

I opened (along with many of you) a long MCP position last Thursday, at the exact right spot, it's now up +9.3% with no leverage at all.

There seems to be a LOT of fuel in the tank and while I don't believe anything moves straight up or down and we are bound to see some corrections, I think MCP is a hold and a buy/add to on corrections for some time to come.

 Daily base which was an ascending bullish triangle with a probable head fake move below support on nothing other than a Goldman Sachs DOWNGRADE (which means they are buying).

Accumulation signals went way up as soon as the gap down from the GS downgrade started.

 We bought right at the lows of MCP's downtrend, the next day we were at a profit.

This is what I mean on a 60 min chart, 3C goes leading positive as price drops from the goldman downgrade, that's a very strong divergence at 60mins and means there's a lot of fuel in the tank to take this one much higher.

 The 30 min chart looks almost exactly the same.

 As does the 15 min chart, but we established this some time ago, I only mention it now because it shows there's a lot of support for higher prices, which means any pullbacks/corrections should be viewed as very high probability long entries, we always want confirmation, but 9/10 times with divergences like that already in place, the correction is an opportunity.

 Around the 7th there was some softness, not really all out negative, but soft leading to lower prices and a stronger leading positive divegrence, using multiple timeframe analysis allowed us to pinpoint the entry.

Thus far intraday MCP still looks very good on a 5+% day today.

I'd watch the X-Over screen and look for a pullback in the near future to the 10-day moving average.

For now if you are playing this as a trading position (I prefer looking at this as a longer term position), the trend channel has a 60 min (wider) stop at $4.72, a 30 min stop at $4.82 and a 15 min (very tight) at $4.90. Fore the moment a 22 bar exponential moving average on a 60, 30 and 15 min chart is very close to the Trend Channel's stops.I prefer to use these on a closeing basis, not intraday.

No comments: