Monday, December 2, 2013

UNG Update

UNG is one of maybe a half dozen or so long term, primary bulls in the making, the base's size suggests that, the way it has accumulated suggests the same.

UNG's Stages

 The overall UNG Base, it's hard to call this anything other than ;lateral, for a while it was a large ascending triangle, but the gist has been lateral with distribution at the highs to send price lower and accumulation at the lows.

 The November leg was good for a 12+% (almost 13%) move, I have a feeling it will consolidate near the trendline just above and likely breakout from there.

 4 hour 3C chart, this is what I meant about distribution at highs and accumulation at lows, this is classic accumulation, when price gets too far from the target price, they knock it back down creating a larger rectangle.

 The 60 min chart

The 30 min chart shows a smaller rectangle inside the larger one, the same theory though, highs are  knocked down to lower areas where accumulation occurs.

 15 min acc. for the November run, this is a good example (regarding the broader market) of what I said last week about how extreme this market is as we use to get good swing trades off a 15 min chart's divergence alone, now we have much more extreme divergences, but that suggests a much more extreme move, likely something like no one alive has seen, at least not in equities.

 This 5 min chart is what makes me think price will consolidate near the trend line just above that I pointed out above.

 Ultimately though, MoneyStream has been in confirmation on the downtrend and leading on the base.

And a daily 3C chart shows the reason we get ranges in accumulation or distribution, this is  a large base, they can't pick up the entire position on one swing to the lows.

I still like UNG a lot (long), but this is a stock of patience, I just kind of pick some up here and there at desirable levels and put them away, its day is coming.

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