MCP Update, Booyah...?

Just in case you're use to the term expressing excitement about a well-performing asset, I put it out there. Otherwise I'm a little disgusted with myself for writing that, but a little self-loathing once in a while keeps me humble.

It's hard to be humble when you're long term long pick, MCP is performing like this for you...

MCP is up +12% today on what looks like a mini stage 2 breakout.

I just put MCP out there again yesterday as a long for those who were interested, already had a partial position and wanted to fill it out or those who may not have known about it.

My Call position in the Options Tracking Portfolio is well above what I usually allow, but it has been performing so well, I've left it in place, but I/we need to pay attention to any loss of momentum with expiration less than a month away.

The MCP calls are now up 142+% with a $15,000 gain

The straight Equity position in the Trading Portfolio is up +12% thus far and we are far from making a real stage 2 breakout.

The Daily chart with stage 4 decline, which starts the entire cycle process over starting with Stage 1 Base/Accumulation which we are still well within, in fact at the lower end of the range.

"a" use to be an ascending triangle base until GS came in and knocked MCP lower, you might think GS didn't like MCP, I'm willing to bet they've been buying it hand over fist near the base lows, NEVER TRSUT GS, if a Wall St. firm says, "We sold or bought XYZ", they are probably telling the truth because that can be fact checked through their SEC disclosures (quarterly and yearly), HOWEVER IN NO CIRCUMSTANCE SHOULD YOU TRADE FROM THEIR 10-Q SEC filings as many traders do. These traders figure, well if GS sold or bought "XYZ" as their 10-K says, I should too, however the 10-K can be delayed up to 45 days so by the time you get it they may have had a position and either closed or reversed it and you wouldn't know until the next 10-K which can also be delayed 45 days. In some circumstances, like if the filing would be detrimental to their ongoing process of putting a large position together or selling it (as all the sharks would smell blood), the SEC will allow them to delay reporting for another quarter, I SUSPECT THIS IS WHAT ICAHN DID WITH AAPL AND I KNOW BUFFET DID IT WITH IBM.

Bottom line, never chase old reporting  and 30-45 days is a lifetime in the market.

I digress...

The point was GS put out a downgrade, not a notice of a trade so when GS is giving free advice (being it's commonly believed GS routinely trades against their own clients), you are best of doing the opposite. GS's Tom Stoppler put out something like 9 free trades and all nine were stopped out, do you believe for a moment GS was stopped out? No, they were using that trade idea to create movement so they could trade the other side so for MCP they say, "Downgrade", MCP falls, they are buying it hand over fist from all that followed their downgrade and sold, GS created the opportunity and the supply at cheap prices they needed to accumulate.

 "B" the Ascending triangle base, "C" GS comes out, "!a" a smaller rectangle base inside the large rectangle base and "2a" the seeming breakout to stage two from this mini fractal base inside a larger base.

Ironically the strongest intraday 4 hour chart shows more accumulation after GS's downgrade than before it, make sense now?

The 60 min chart shows the same, stage 1 base, stage 2 mark up.

This is what I posted yesterday, a leading positive and this is why I said I thought yesterday was a good chance to move in to MCP or add to it.

This was another leading positive chart and look at what happened today.

 I'll hold the equity long trading position and any core long position built, but the options position is going to start feeling the Theta decay with about 3 weeks until expiration so any loss of upside momentum and I'll be out of MCP, whether I replace the calls or not with a longer expiration depends on the situation, it seems implied volatility is very high right now which may not be ideal for entering new option positions.

Congrats to MCP longs, I hope you have a nice steak or lobster dinner tongiht