TWTR Follow Up

Yesterday TWTR was presented as a trade idea (short) and entered in the Trading Portfolio, 

The charts/reasons for the trade were not so much 3C, but it has fallen in to line, it was more based on a parabolic move and change in character, neither of which I trust, there was the additional Hanging Man close and some other stuff like the Trend Channel, here are the charts put out after the trade idea.

TWTR is down -7.61% and our position is up +7.6% so we entered at essentially THE EXACT RIGHT MOMENT.

I WOULDN'T BLAME ANYONE FOR TAKING A 1-DAY +7% GAIN, but for now I'm going to stick around and see if we get the true parabola of a parabolic move.

 The Hanging Man bearish reversal candle yesterday was a GREAT start and the fact it came on increased volume just about doubled the probabilities of the candle working the way it is expected to. You could dsy the increased volume and very narrow range between open and close which forms the real body of the candle or the head of the Hanging Man in the candle from yesterday (yellow) is a visual representation of a bearish event.

Most traders just see a Hanging man and trade from that without ever understanding what it means psychologically, if you don't understand what the chart is telling you, then you are just blindly following the dogma of Technical analysis and that is NO EDGE IN THE MARKET AT ALL.

What it tells us with the expanded volume is at the price level yesterday there was a "Churning" event, that's when price barely moves as the open to close range barely did, but the high volume shows a lot of shares exchanged hands, most commonly in this formation it means smart money is handing the shares off to dumb money and leaving them holding the bag.

Today's candle isn't what I expected, but it is one of the most common confirmation candles for this particular 3-candle set up.

 The increased ROC and parabolic move also played a big role in the decision, the churning was the cherry on top,.

Remember yesterday I said that the parabolic move is as close as we get to a "V" reversal or an event rather than a process, but there is still some process, you can see the mini , tight "U" at the top.

 The same Trend Channel used yesterday was stopped out, as I said, it will never take you out at the top, but it will give you an objective stop that allows you to keep more of the trend and not guess as to when you should stop out.

I said the direction of the channel also plays an important role and while it's still a 15 min channel, it is the one that defined the parabolic move.

The blue version of 3C is faster than the others, the 60 min chart shows there was distribution in the form of churning near the top.

The 10 min chart also shows the same so we have long and intermediate charts in line.

And the 5 min chart that drew my attention yesterday.

I'll keep an eye on this, but it's a fast mover, if you are trading TWTR, I suggest you set lots of price alerts on either side of price so you can react quickly.