Thursday, December 12, 2013

VIX / VXX Follow Up

The spot VIX daily Bollinger Band Squeeze/Breakout and the VIX Futures 4 hour leading positive divegrence are still two of the most recent red flags for the market on the downside and VIX on the upside, this is why I want to maintain some exposure to the VIX at all times now, even if only a VXX long.

Short term, I like the momentum in VXX, that's where I usually try to take profits and we did pretty well with the position.

The P/L looks like this...


With a cost basis of $3.25 and a fill of $4.90, the VXX calls came in at +50.7%

 This is what the intraday VIX futures look like on a 1 min chart.

The more concerning for the short term and for option positions, especially if they are December expiration is this 5 min chart, this is where I take a signal seriously with futures.

However, the long term is still VERY solid and I'd love to re-enter VXX calls and UVXY long in the trading portfolio, this is the 15 min chart so you can see there isn't that much damage done, more or less along the lines of a bounce and that's about it.

The big picture that's driving the Bollinger Band Squeeze in spot VIX is this never before seen (by my eyes) 4 hour leading positive divegrence in actual VIX futures.

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