Market Update

It's still relatively quiet, typically this kind of range bound action sees strong underlying action, there's some, but it's not so strong that I'd take any action on it yet.

Tomorrow is the monthly options expiration rather than the weekly, so a part of me is wondering if there's a pin in effect, commonly Friday's open and subsequent Max Pain Options Expiration pin (which is stronger on monthly expirations than the weekly we see every Friday) is right around Thursday's close.

As far as intraday market movement, there's nothing going on with the SPY Arbitrage, the only thing going on is the Yen jiggle or pullback I mentioned earlier which is effectively noise, but it's about the only noise that has a reasonable chance of creating some movement, even if small, even if brief.

To show you what the major driver is and how it fits in to the big picture, here are the charts.

 1 min Yen single currency futures and the intraday negative divergence I mentioned earlier, it's more clear now.

 Here's how that divergence (above) fits in to the 15 min Yen leading positive chart which is really a base that looks to be creating some right side symmetry and that's about it. The area in orange is the chart above so it's very minor and the leading divergence is very strong comparatively, this won't create much of a fuss.

However, this is EXACTLY what we've been expecting since Tuesday when the Yen was still heading down, but multiple timeframes started showing accumulation, the base that formed at that point, was very high probability.

 ES (INTRADAY) has been following AUD/JPY, on a longer scale than 1 min, ES is WAY out of sync with the correlation and is kind of like a long narrow cliff with no support under it.

To put today in to context on the AUD/JPY 60 min chart which is clearly in a downtrend, that white arrow is about it, so a little jog to the upside would be completely normal and not a threat at all to the bearish tone emerging through the Yen, then the carry crosses, then the Index futures and then at the end of the line, the market itself.

This is what EUR/JPY (and USD/JPY) look like 1 min intraday, they also have a little base for a bounce based in the Yen's 1 min negative at the top of this post.

What I'm saying is this is what is likely to be controlling action the next hour or two, but other than that, it's completely insignificant.

As I often say,"Movement creates opportunities and information". We've been caught in this range and there have been moderate 3C signals, if we get a Yen based move, no matter how small or larger or brief, it should open up underlying movement in 3C giving us updated information and quite possible some trades worth taking. Right now in this flat environment, committing new money is insane without a darn good reason, it's opportunity cost at best and open market risk at worst.