Decision Time on Short Term Shorts

Yesterday I took on the VXX call exposure for a short term pullback and it has been nagging at me all day today whether to open a couple more positions in to the price strength today (likely op-ex related) even though yesterday I said I didn't want to get any further involved beyond the 1 position.

The IWM would be my most likely target and it looks like it's getting ready to start a move lower so it's kind of decision time.

I think yesterday's signals are real and we will likely see a move lower (very quick), I also think that now we have solid 15-60 min (60 min in some cases) positives, the 1-5 min charts would be a very strong statement going strongly positive on a pullback.

I think I'm going to stick with my VXX call (essentially short the market) and since I've cleaned up a bunch of positions and have dry powder, I'm going to wait and see if we get this move lower which I suspect we will and rather than hitch-hike it, look to use the dry powder on new positions once it has made that move lower and maybe clean up some short term trading shorts at a profit. Otherwise I'm pretty fairly well set with positions for medium term.

Here's the IWM, it's been a difficult decision, but I want to really start keeping my focus on bigger picture events.

 IWM 1 min intraday has been in line, it looks like an op-ex pin and has recently started going negative right on cue at the 2-2:30 hour as contracts are largely closed out.

The 1 min is more of an intraday steering timeframes, not a serious underlying trade. Once beyond the 1 min at the 2 min, things look pretty bad near term, but I don't see this as any threat to the move we have been hunting for about 2 weeks now.

 IWM 3 min is also in leading negative position ever since we got those negative signals yesterday.

And while we are positive at the "W" base , the 5 min chart since yesterday has not even stayed in line and in rather leading negative.

I was surprised to see this today on the IWM 15 min chart...

 Like the other averages or HYG we have that positive divergence since Jan 27th, but the last 2 days we have a negative, it's not enough to destroy our set up, but it is strange that it would make it out that far.

The other significant "short term" problem for the market is this...

 Not so much the Russell 2000 1 min futures, although they aren't even in line, but...

The 5 min chart.

Typically any trading positions I've taken have depended on the divergence in the 5 min chart like the VXX put position this week with a significant 5 min negative that is now in line.

Even though we have these signals and I think they do fire to the downside, I think the end result will be a full house with 1-30 or 60 min charts positive and we should be ready for that move we have been following as seen on the SPY 30 min below.

SPY 30 min.

Even though this is an exceptional positive divegrence for this market, it still needs the short term charts to light the fuse and they don't look like they are ready.