Especially being around 2 p.m. with a very parabolic move and trouble confirming, it made sense to take gains in HYG (I'll put the P/L up later. I use options as a tool, not a trading method or a lotto ticket, when there's a tight place that has a decent signal , but the trade doesn't look to have enough profit potential or the beta is too low (like TLT), then I use options, but essentially as a way to trade the asset, not looking for home runs although I wouldn't poke one in the eye either. Ever since I've used options in this manner, I've gone from blowing up options accounts to adding to them steadily, this week the entire book of options ideas has added +9.83% and ranked 25 of 772 and this with just hitting singles and getting out as quickly as possible as I see them much like Vegas, the longer you stay, the more the odds are in favor of the house.
As for HYG...
I like HYG for the longer term, not the primary trend. This looks like a lot of the market averages we've been tracking since 1/24 - 1/27.
However...
Today is too parabolic and the 5 min chart is having a lot of trouble where it should see 3C at a new high.
Another Indicator that I love as it just has amazing predictive abilities has been our Leading Indicator set up for Yields, this too is signifying trouble ahead near term and ,why let the HYG gains turn against me?
I clearly remember showing this chart with Yields making a positive divegrence at the second portion of the "W" base as you see below. However yesterday they failed to track the market so they went negative, today they've gone leading negative. The market seems to be pulled toward yields like a magnet so this is in line with yesterday's signals, thus no reason to hand around some of these calls and HYG.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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