Monday, March 31, 2014

Early Indications...

Early indications confirm the "EARLY" Pump on 1 min charts, but as far as the dump part, we'll have to wait.

Even better, VXX is doing what we have been waiting for, the pump part is needed for VXX to give the signal I've been looking for.. The leading positive divergences in VXX are the signal I've been looking for almost 4 weeks now.

 SPY 1 min this is the late Friday accumulation mentioned in the post, "Monday" predicting a Pump early Monday. So far on the open we have confirmation, but this has been normal over the last 6 or so days, later comes the negative signals or turning signals.


SPY 5 min has a clearly distinctly different feel, this is a longer trend, but we did have a 5 min positive Thursday, a 1-day divergence.


SPY 5 min Here it is on a bearish traingle which Technical traders expect to break to the downside so the breakout to the upside as we predicted, in a sort of head fake or at least taking advantage of Technical traders' predictability.


QQQ 1min also shows the same late day (after 2 p.m. when the op-ex pin is lifted) accumulation that lef to our prediction of a pump early Monday, so far we have confirmation here as well as we did early Friday which slowly reversed.


QQQ 2 min showing the negative signal on Friday around the 11-ish highs and then the accumulation after 2 o.m. which was why I expected a pop Monday morning, but considering the 7- day pattern, it will likely be faded.


IWM 1 min showing the late Friday afternoon (after 2 p.m.) accumulation for Monday's pop as price is somewhat random the next day or especially over a weekend, but 3C signals tend to pick up right where they left off in the averages, this accumulation picked up with the pump.

So far we have confirmation of the gap in all of the averages...Same as Friday, it was around 11 or a bit before that signals faded and we could see the market would likely fade as it did in to the close.


IWM 5 min again is showing a similar negative "Bigger Picture" trend like the SPY, in fact the February rally/cycle's stage 3 top is clearly seen above and already starting to move in to stage 4 decline as expected BEFORE the rally even began with our trend expectations of early February (2/4/2014).


IWM 5 min shows the 1-day 5 min accumulation on Thursday, Friday's pump and fade , nothing to see yet today...

IWM 60 min and the Feb cycle from stage 1 to stage 2 rally to stage 3 top which is clearly morphing in to stage 4 decline.
 However my main point posting this chart is the strong 60 min signal and how long it has been telling us, "Get your shorts/portfolio together" as it has been leading to new negative lows.

As far as the point of ANY MARKET UPSIDE, we have expected it, but it hasn't been about a price based head fake, rather about pushing VIX futures down to be accumulated in a final signal for a transition to a serious downside pivot as was part of our trend prediction (up strongly and then down even stronger) in early February before the first point on the upside from the Feb rally showed up.

VXX 1 min is showing no confirmation of the gap down and instead is showing positive accumulation as we saw Friday, as we have been waiting to see, we are finally getting this move which I have been ultra-patient with, "Not entering until we get the signal with Flying leading divergences".


HYG 1 min and as usual the HYG algo fooling asset that makes algos think insstitutional money is in a risk on phase when they are actually accumulating VIX futures is showing PURE distribution again today even as the market averages chase it higher as they are programmed to do as they read higher HYG as institutional risk on sentiment...

***UPDATE

Just like Friday, since starting this post, we are already getting negative signals that suggest a loss of momentum , it was about the exact same time Friday we got them too.

These are early and just starting, but it is what we'd expect to see, PUMP and fade...

 SPY 1 min intraday going negative a bit

Q's just starting to join

As well as the IWM.


No comments: