Market Update...

So far , still so good.

Like Friday there's a negative divegrence that has caused a loss of momentum from the initial overnight pump and then the additional pre-market pump, it seems to be a trend that's working, pump the market in the low volume overnight  session and then sell in to it during the higher regular volume hours so they aren't leaving footprints or causing waves to the causal observer.

First the averages...

 SPy's Friday afternoon accumulation, as usual, 3C action picks up where it left off and the late day accumulation suggested an early pump or price strength in the market Monday, however like Friday we see intraday negatives setting in.

Here's the post again from Friday explaining what we were seeing and why I thought we'd see more of this P&D action as we move in to the new quarter with window dressing pretty much complete considering the T+3 settlement rule (Trade and 3 days).

The Q's with the same Friday afternoon positive and the same loss of momentum

And the IWM

 The Index Futures...

 ES showing the same except this shows the pump pre-market in addition to the gap up on the open of futures trade last night, we also see the same intraday negatives or distribution.

 TF futures, the same

NQ futures the same


The ONLY reason ANY market upside has been of interest to me is the VIX futures or short term futures (VXX) and the strong, near vertical leading positive "Flying" divergences that only VIX assets put in, I suspect they give these much stronger signals because as they say, the VIX is considered "The Fear Index" and when there's fear, they are accumulating VIX hard, this has been the key to many market pivots/reversals, and I have been waiting on what is going on the 4th week I believe as the market has been in a stage 3 top.

 Note the VXX did not see 3C confirmation of the gap lower, which is what I've been waiting to see, the positive divegrence on the gap lower is what I expected to see and it is what we need to see in order to have a high probability timing marker for a market pivot in to a primary trend (down).

 Another view of the 1 min VXX, as mentioned Friday was the first day I saw the strong leading positives that turn to these near vertical "flying" divergences. This is excelent, normally we'd expect to see confirmation with a gap up in the market, this is the move down I thought the market needed before they'd accumulate in size and thus far they seem to be doing exactly that.

Don't forget that the relative strength in the VIX futures has been very strong vs the market, but last week the last 2 days the VIX Futures calls had seen double digit declines in premiums, it seemed no matter what they tried there was a solid bid for protection keeping it lofty, it almost seems they took a new tact to help knock them lower and we are seeing immediate results from that.



Don't be surprised if we have some VXX longs soon or calls.
 VXX 3 min is obviously seeing an increased ROC on the upside in 3C as prices drop below a support level.

And VXX 5 min has been in good shape, but it needs most all of the timeframes to be in this shape or better to be truly useful.

HYG 1 min intraday shows they are trying to give it some steering support, but the trend here is very clear, although HYG helps move the market up as a manipulation lever via algos, it seems no one wants to get caught with a position of any size.

5 min HYG trend is VERY clear without any drawings.

 As for the other market moving lever, the carry trades and USD/JPY specifically, the intraday 1 min action makes sense with the market action above, however the stronger trend on the 5 min chart shows something a little more ominous for the market...

I think the trend there is pretty clear, if this keeps up then it's just a matter of time before the 1 min charts give out and the signals of the longer charts like this 5 min kick in and the market follows.

Going to check on some individual trading assets and positions.