While I think the Chinese situation overnight is more important and dangerous for world markets , the immediate threat right now sending stocks lower is out of Russia.
Here's the relation between USD/JPY and Es shortly after the NFP when prices started to fade, it's not as clear here, but ES was again (like yesterday) underperforming USD/JPY.
ES in purple, it topped first, it didn't gain as much, it faded first and deeper.
Here's a different view...
USD/JPY, also note the very recent negative divegrence after the knee jerk higher, the move clearly wasn't on the beat in the NFP as that does nothing to slow down the rate of cuts to QE, but the rise in the unemployment rate from 6.6 to 6.7 could delay rate hikes which the last F_O_M_C meeting minutes had several members say, "Should start mid 2014" which is just a few months away and as of yet, the F_O_M_C has only talked about how to communicate rate hike guidance, they haven't given any new guidance so officially the 6.5% unemployment level is still the area where the F_E_D hikes rates which the market is far more worried about as rate hikes or tightening has led to numerous bear markets.
ES looked like this at the exact same time in pre-market
Note that ES does look like there was some accumulation before the NFP in the early hours of the morning as if a knee jerk was going to be sold in to because the accumulation area isn't large enough to support much more than that. ES didn't rise as much and fell faster.
Just a bit later in to the open...
Es had almost retraced the entire NFP knee jerk reaction, remember what I always say and think about parabolic moves, "They can't be trusted and often fall as fast as they rise", but even here you can see a proportional reversal process.
As of my last capture a few minutes ago at 9:43, ES had retraced the entire NFP knee jerk reaction, NQ (NASDAQ futures had as well and TF was well on its way to doing the same.
As of now, USD/JPY is falling and has retraced almost half of the knee jerk, a little less than half, but Index futures are once again underperforming, ES is now below pre-NFP levels while NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Futures are WELL BELOW the NFP levels...
NASDAQ futures well below pre-NFP and overnight levels...
Russell 2000 futures well below NFP levels and the relative performance vs a falling USD/JPY is horrible...
USD/JPY currently, apparently risk sentiment in stocks is fading much faster than the correlation that usually drives them and this seems to be because of a Russian threat to US/EU sanctions, more on that, let me get these charts out...
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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