Friday, March 7, 2014

XLF Put Add To

I probably can't add much to XLF April $22 Puts and I have a FAZ long position, but I really like it and if I did have a little room I'd be trying to decide whether there's a chance of a better intraday entry and if it is worth waiting for that chance.

Yesterday we had a VERY flat support range right at $22.31, I talked about this and was hoping to see an intraday break higher to enter the XLF position, you can see that from yesterday here and here.

That area I was looking for a break above saw a break of a meager 1 cent, not at all what I was looking for and not useful, today we have a move a bit higher that is more on the level and we still have great signals.

 This was the range from yesterday, VERY clear resistance makes for a very obvious head fake move as that's where the orders are, the yellow arrow shows the 1 cent move above the range which was useless, today is a bit different and we have a continued negative divergence in to the move today so that's what I was looking for yesterday.

 The 2 min chart shows the same, distribution like the rest of the market in to the opening gap, although Financials are a more solid performer today, I've looked at several and they look like XLF (take GS for example).

 The 3 min migration is beautiful, the two ranges, one I was looking for Wednesday and  got Thursday and the second today. The straight line resistance can't and support can't be ignored, you know what's going to happen at these very obvious places which sets up opportunities if we can confirm that they are not what they appear as we see above.


 The 5 min chart with the last real accumulation zone which happens to be the Jan 27 i Feb 5th like the rest of the market, I'd say looking at the run this week, that cycle is exhausted which makes me very comfortable with positions like yesterday's XLF puts, other puts like IWM are already at double digit gains on a move that hasn't even started and which I think will be more volatile than the last decline and the last rally as volatility has picked up on each one successively.

 This is the area I mentioned on Wednesday saying, "If we get the XLF move, look for FAZ to move under this trendline, but it has done so on positive divergences and FAS confirms as well.

I'll likely keep an eye on these in case any one is considering them and looking for timing.


And like the 5 min XLF negative through this week, FAZ which is totally unconnected from a 3C standpoint as price is tracking XLF, but volume is completely different, has the same or mirror opposite confirmation signal.

This looks to be one of the areas today that has a decent tactical entry.

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