Futures Updates

I have some very interesting Futures charts because they make a pretty clear case for multiple timeframe analysis, some of them you have seen, some you have seen have grown even more. Some, like VIX futures make me really wonder if I shouldn't be pushing a VXX position right now, again today the same member confirmed his VXX calls are holding their ground and remain green even though they haven't made any significant move and they have time decay working against them, this suggests they are well bid, which means protection is well bid.

First lets start with Index futures from intraday and then on out, I use examples of the different major averages instead of posting 3 for every timeframe, I'd have 18 charts there alone and I doubt you'd get through them.

Index futures intraday and multiple timeframe analysis

 ES 1 min intraday, these charts never hold up overnight and certainly not next day, they are decent for intraday, ES is in a little better shape 3C wise than price so that may be a positive in to the close.

 NQ/NASDAQ 100 futures 1 min were quite negative pre-open and open, but they have a small positive divegrence as you can see, they also have a fairly nice looking intraday rounding process, many times you can tell what the underlying trade is just from the shape of price.

 TF or Russell 2000 Futures are directly in line, no positive or negative beyond the price action 3C has confirmed.

This is multiple timeframe analysis, TF/R2K 5 min chart with a steep leading negative divegrence, this is the first timeframe that will hold up overnight, it's not quite as good as 3C on the averages as far as holding up over a weekend, but this is a sttep enough divegrence that the 1 min chart isn't going to be able to change this at all even if it were leading positive for the next 2 hours.

NQ 15 min (NASDAQ 100), there's a VERY clear, very steep distribution signal in effect here, again, nothing short term is going to change that. I haven't seen the 3C divergences in to the close yet, but based on what I see so far, it looks like a market collapse in to next week, lord knows there's more than a large enough reversal process and "Igloo with Chimney" price pattern in place.

 ES 60 min has a wicked long relative negative divegrence, these are typically weaker than leading, but with this size it's very meaningful and as usual, they tend to get worse and that is obvious in the steep leading negative divegrence , I wouldn't buy a market correlated long here for any reason with multiple timeframes all this extreme.

USD/JPY and $USD and Yen charts

 Intraday the 1 min USD/JPY has a pretty impressive 1 min leading positive divegrence, it developed almost instantly around the 2 p.m. area, it does have a bit of a rounding process, but it does NOT have a large divergence for the day meaning duration, just a quick spike, like a sugar high that's intense, but wears off quickly.

This is the 5 min $USD, it is in line with the downtrend which is not surprising as it has been negative the last couple of days.

 The Yen 15 min was intensely positive, now the 30 min is seeing migration of that divegrence which is why I give the Yen the advantage over the $USD, a lot of this is safe haven buying or closing of the carry, it looks like we might even have a head fake move in lace, but the real killer for the USD/JPY is the next chart...

$USD 4 hour has no divergence to speak of, you have to torture the chart to get it to talk, there's no edge in doing that, however...

The Yen 4 hour chart has a scremaing leading positive divegrence that is huge in size, THESE ARE THE KIND OF CHARTS THAT YOU WANT TO LOOK FOR, YOU DON'T HAVE TO STUDY THEM, THEY JUMP OFF THE SCREEN AT YOU, THESE ARE THE HIGH PROBABILITY TRADES, THIS ALSO MEANS THE USD/JPY SHOULD BE MAKING A NEW LEG LOWER IN ITS 2014 DOWNTREND AND THE INDEX FUTURES FOLLOW.

VIX Futures, the real thing, not spot, not an ETF.

 This 15 min chart has been positive, but it is clear that there's been a strong bid for protection, thus out members VIX calls holding up so well.

 Look at the divergence that has formed on the 30 min chart essentially since yesterday, I've been waiting for strong signals that jump off the chart to put VXX and UVXY out as new positions, even though I hold UVXY I still want to give the best looking entry for new or add to positions (and I love my UVXY position), this is showing massive flight to protection that is not being seen in the averages themselves which is why I would not buy a market correlated long, these are the type of signals that are a red flag for a gap down that takes out a month or more of longs in the am alone.

Beyond that, we've known about the longer term positive trend in VXX / UVXY and VIX futures in general, however on this 60 min chart that leading positive divergence was not there earlier this week, that developed just the last couple of days.

THIS IS EXACTLY WHY I'M WONDERING IF I SHOULD NOT HAVE VXX AND UVXY OUT THERE RIGHT NOW AS LONG POSITIONS, I'VE BEEN WAITING FOR ALL THE CHARTS TO SCREAM (THEY ARE POSITIVE, BUT VXX DIVERGENCES ARE SOME OF THE MOST INTENSE), I'LL HAVE TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK, THERE MIGHT BE A GREAT ENTRY IN TO TODAY'S CLOSE.