Thursday, March 13, 2014

Market Update

As I have written to a few members,

"I've only seen multiple timeframe divergences like this that accrue rather than migrate a few times before, I can tell you 3C is telling us despite price even hanging around in a sort of consolidation, there is major weakness, that's what this accrual is all about.

If there were migration of the divegrence or if it were consistent through the week I could guess, but it's not, it's like little accumulation pumps to hold price up and then larger dumps of distribution over and over and the only way you see the trend of accrual of a negative divegrence is on longer timeframes, see my last market post and the original explanation of this odd divergence that I've only seen a handful of times."

However in the very short term there's intraday improvement, it may take a little time intraday for a reversal process to be put in, but this is what I'm seeing across the board on intraday charts so I'm going to be patient and see if they'll put in the upside reversal it seems they are working on intraday.

The longer term charts even at 5 mins though are seeing an accrual of distribution which is an odd divergence, as mentioned above.

 SPY 1 min weak positive, but building.

The IWM is in line.

QQQ has one of the strongest intraday 1 min positives and I think it will turn lateral and likely accumulate more to head higher, but that being said, I think they keep distributing shares, this is definitely a unique market and I'd say a VERY weak one.

Index futures intraday
 ES 1 min is flying now positive

As is NQ

And TF, but as I mentioned about accrual of distribution as these short term 1-2 min positive steering divergences and some levers that are being used, the net effect is still overall distribution, this is why I have kept my majority of bearish positions with only the 2 hedges.

NQ-NDX 100 futures 5 min, as you can see they steer the market higher with AUD/JPY divergences or 1-2 min positives in the averages and then they are selling in to every bit of strength in price they can muster as this 5 min chart shows, this is consistent in the averages as well as the Index futures.

With HYG seeing weakness, if that 10 min positive fails, this market may move down in a hurry, but for now, I'd have a little patience and see if it is going to turn up intraday which is what it is working on right now.

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