Opening Indications

This is an extremely fascinating market, there are changes in character that I haven't seen before (you learn something new everyday, at least I hope to). The closest I can come to explaining this is what I already posted in this post, Accrual rather than Migration which is a rare 3C divergence that I've seen from time to time, but maybe only once or twice a year.

This is depicting a VERY weak market, I'll use the Q's which have had the strongest 3C underlying trade as an example...

 There's no confirmation of the gap up in the Q's or any of the averages for that matter this morning, you'll see why in a minute.


However the 2 min chart is in line with gains of recent lows as is...

The 3 min chart, however keeping the rare concept of "Accrual" rather than migration, nearly the opposite effect ...

Look at the signal on the 5 min QQQ chart, granted it was never positive, but what we are seeing is distribution on a stronger underlying trend in to these gains.

The same can be seen in the other averages...

 SPY 5 min

IWM 5 min.

However the averages NEVER were the basis for any move up with 1-3 min divergences (positive), it was always HYG... Take a look at what is happening there, the same concept.

The 10 min chart has been the strongest, leading positive and used as a manipulation lever to lift the market, but just below on the 5 min timeframe...

Look at the negative and then Leading negative divegrence, HYG is falling apart faster than I'd ever have imagined...

As for our carry trade (AUD/JPY) correlation that has been right on...

 The perfectly in line status of ES (purple) vs the AUD/JPY just saw a major break as ES did not perform with AUD/JPY to the far right on this 5 min chart, ES is weaker, it's not that it's following another pair, although it is between AUD/JPY and the weaker USD/JPY..

USD/JPY v ES...

I'm not sure quite yet how this ties in and plays out, I just know that this is a WEAK MARKET AND THE LEVER OF HYG IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN.

THIS IS A CHANGE IN CHARACTER THAT MUST MEAN SOMETHING BECAUSE IT IS SO RARE.