VIX Futures and VXX

Generally the VIX futures are confirming intraday charts such as what I just posted, they are also showing some more strength that has been accrued (the opposite of distribution accrued this week in the averages), however, I'd still like to see the VXX/VIX futures move toward the low end of their range and send up huge leading divergences, there would be no better timing signal than that, but we have to follow the message of the market as it is and not as we'd have it, however that scenario is not ruled out either.

 VIX futures intraday (and this is all we have been really concerned with today, it's clear there's significant weakness throughout the market and there was nearly a week for migration of the Friday 1-2 minute positives to move to longer charts and form a substantial base that could put in a decent rally or bounce, even though we did not expect that, I really did not expect that the migration process would not proceed beyond 2 or 3 min charts at the max and certainly did not expect to see this accrual of distribution. The point is, anyone who might have been worried that we were going to see another February style bounce which we knew to expect before hand because of the signals, as I have been saying all week, "We are nowhere near that kind of situation")...

VIX futures move opposite the market and thus the Index futures and averages so a negative divegrence here is MORE confirmation of the intraday probability of the market making a turn sideways from its early downtrend and then likely making a turn back up. I don't have any reason to expect any kind of strong bounce at all, this is why the hedging long call QQQ/IWM options were originally going to be so short(I was looking at weekly this week, but was reminded of my rules to always use at least 2x the time you think you'll need and glad I did). These were also and are still (even with yesterday's add to) much smaller than a normal option position, they were simply meant to hedge any short term loss of profits in Puts until the puts started working for us again.

The point above is we have confirmation of the last 2 posts.

 VXX 1 min shows the non confirmation of its gap down, the exact opposite of the non confirmation of the market's gap up this morning, however since it too has put in a small negative divegrence that should send the VXX lower intraday so that's more confirmation.

 The 2 min chart, like the averages, is in line so there's not much to learn from that yet other than to know where it is so we may see if there are any changes as the day moves on.

The 3 min chart is in line, this is stronger than the market averages that have had a lot of trouble even getting a 3 min positive so this makes sense and is a reflection of what we have seen all week, despite 1 , 2 and some 3 min market positives, the bigger picture as shown earlier on a 5 min is the accrual of distribution, that's what the trend is under all of these small intraday steering divergences which is what I'd call the current situation in the market, a steering divegrence trying to get the averages back up where they'll likely see even more distribution.

 The VXX 5 min chart has a sharp leading positive divegrence, but it is not as sharp as it can be and that is what I'm ultimately looking for in calling a market pivot to the downside on a primary trend basis, so I'm hoping we still see that, this was the premise of Friday's analysis for what to expect for this week.

On the same 5 min chart of the SPY, you see it is leading negative, this is the accrual of distribution rather than the more typical migration process, instead of the market building a short term base/bounce area it is just distributing in to any strength (like this morning's gap) that it can.

PLEASE, PLEASE DO NOT FORGET, THIS IS THE PRIXZE, THIS IS WHY THE MAJORITY OF POSITIONS ARE LEANING SHORT, THE 60 MIN CHARTS IN THE AVERAGES SAW INCREDIBLE DISTRIBUTION THROUGH THE FEBRUARY RALLY/SHORT SQUEEZE, THIS IS IS COMING HOME TO ROOST AND IT WILL BE SENDING THE MARKET DOWN.

This week has been all about looking for the specific pivot point in which that happens.