Market Update

There are no big surprises in the market this morning, 1 min intraday steering curentsa are in line with an Inverse H&S being formed as well as a typical Friday Op-ex pin (even the weeklies). There is a bid in VIX futures that appears to be more retail than institutional this morning or it may be smaller positions, but I feel it's definitely protection on the Crimean referendum Sunday, however I can't imagine the market hasn't already discounted the Russian annexation of the peninsula, it's the Eastern Ukraine border that is and always has been the real threat and this is why Kiev decided not to split their forces and defend Crimea in the south and rather concentrated them along the vast eastern border with Russia, so there is some obvious nervousness over what is really a fait accompli.

 SPY 1 min with a 1 min steering divegrence intraday which could be a max pain op-ex pin as the market almost always hovers near Thursday's close until most contracts are closed around 2 p.m. and then we see some real movement, as always the price movement after 2 is virtually meaningless, I expect profit taking in front of Sunday's referendum, but as we have seen the 3C signals the last 2 hours are important for understanding the next week as Monday's charts pick up where Friday left off (3C not price).

SPY 2 min is leading positive, very impressive for what has been the 3C laggard all week.

SPY 2min we can see the inverse H&S taking shape, this afternoon it could be complete.

IWM 1min with the same positives from yesterday afternoon and steering divergence this morning to knock price down a bit which is normal for a "W" bottom and an op-ex pin (Friday).

IWM 2 min the same as above

IWM 3 min virtually the same as above.

I will say some of the 5 min charts yesterday were positive which is the first time this week, but they have for the most part fallen to "in line".

IWM 5 min with the exception of the IWM 5 min leading positive.

QQQ 2 min, the 1 min is in line, this is more of a rectangle consolidation thus far.

QQQ 5 min and there's a slight 5 min, nothing to worry about as of now.

As for VIX futures and short term futures...

 VXX 1 min shows the bid in VXX, but no 3C confirmation even on a 1 min chart.

The 5 min is still in line from earlier in the week, but the VIX move looks sort of parabolic and I don't trust those moves to hold

VIX 1 min futures with a negative divegrence, I see they are coming down intraday now...

And the 5 min shows the larger trend, distribution on this move up so I'm happy with what we have, it's just a bit slow going like the entire week has been