AMZN Should See a Bounce

AMZN is VERY similar to NFLX in its situation, what I expect which would be what most would call an oversold bounce, but I view this in a different light which is not important right now.

I'm already in (Trading tracking portfolio and options tracking portfolio) to NFLX long/call positions so I like it, I think it will deliver, but I don't think it will last.

The real trade is not the hitch-hike trade on the upside, but shorting price strength as the upside starts to see short term distribution as the intermediate and long term charts are already solidly there.

AMZN I think is very similar.

 As far as the longer term, this is why AMZN is a CORE/TREND short that I won't let go of despite a bounce.

Note the trend line and then as usual as there's a change in character, there's a change in trend right behind it and the change in character is the typical increased price ROC to the upside, it looks bullish, but almost always leads to a top. These ROC changes are typically seen at transition points between almost all of the 4 stages, whether the breakout from stage 1, the move from stage 2 to a stage 3 top or the increased volatility from a stage 3 top to the start of stage 4 decline and of course, CAPITULATION, the end of stage 4.

 That's not enough for me though, the Daily 3C chart for AMZN is certainly enough for me theoretically, it's just a matter of logistical concerns like the right place to enter, the right assets to use, position sizing, phasing in, head fakes, etc.

However, this is a very strong and very negative signal...distribution right at the area we'd call a stage 3 top and its leading negative in a big way.

As far as the Calls on a short term basis, there's the head fake break under support, note the volume pick up as stops are hit and new shorts enter, all of that is selling across the tape that means all of that is potential supply on the cheap, easy to accumulate in size as no one ever seems to ask, "Who's taking the other side of the trade?"

 Intraday 2 min, I didn't think I even needed to draw on the chart, the leading positive s pretty clear.

The actual multi-day accumulation period and head fake move are very reminiscent of NFLX.

 As for migration, the 3 min chart is seeing it as it leads positive, I included some other signals there as well.

The 5 min chart is impressive so this is my minimum standard for a position, the 5 min chart must have a divegrence.

At 10 min things get sloppy so it hasn't migrated that far, at 15 min things are downright negative, so the positive divegrence is not that big, but big enough for a leveraged position like calls.