GLD/ UGLD / GDX / NUGT

All 4 assets (I have open longs in UGLD 3x long gold) and NUGT (3x long gold miners) are going to be coming down intraday, probably another gap fill.

My view hasn't changed at all since the update on 4/2 when I said they'd be coming down the next day, but I had no intention of closing them.

I feel the EXACT same way today, these are meant to be longer term counter trend upside positions, they have barely moved out of stage 1 and have a lot of upside potential, I'm not going to waste time and have more transaction costs than the trading around the bone is even worth, they are staying put as they are, but they will be coming down intraday and likely filling today''s gap.

Here's yesterday's update on the 4 assets...

If you want to fade them, that's up to you.

Here's what you are working with and working against...

 GLD intraday 1 min distribution, should be coming down soon.


UGLD 5 min with a negative divegrence, stages 1 and 3 are the most volatile, the hardest to make money in as they don't trend like stage 2 and 4, but this is a solid stage 1 base doing some backing and filling of gaps.

 GLD 10 min, now we are in the institutional timeframes, you can see distribution at a stage 3 top, look at the size of the stage 1 base vs the previous top and remember that bases are almost always about half the size of a top's reversal process, that's why I'm excited about a counter trend rally in these assets and will stay put.

That's also a massive leading positive divegrence.

 UGLD 15 min, the same stage 3 top, stage 4 downtrend confirmation and a huge stage 1 base with a very mature reversal process and huge leading positive divegrence.

GDX and NUGT...

 1 min intraday negative in NUGT (3x long gold miners), there's no upside gap confirmation tooday, not surprising really, but not a big deal to me either.

GDX (gold miners) 2 min with the negative on the 2nd I warned about and said, "I'm staying put" unless it was an options related trade, you can see the accumulation yesterday on a short term basis, the gap up and distribution intraday, likely to fill today's gap.

 NUGT 5 min with the negative on the 2nd as well as a leading negative today, these will come down, maybe a GDX or GLD Put position for a quick trade/hedge would work well.

However at the more important 10 min GDX, a strong leading positive at the stage 1 base

And NUGT 15 min, a much stronger timeframe with the different stages, but the reversal process/base and the divegrence are the highest probabilities, I'm not going to react to every little jot and tittle, that being said, if you can set up a put at the right place for a quick trade it may be worth while.