Thursday, April 17, 2014

FXP Looking Interesting

As you know, I love FXP, but recently saw there was a gap fill pullback was coming after a 5-6% day up. I'd like to put this out as a new position (long) or an add to and have been waiting on the signals to do that.

We have some interesting ones that I'm not sure what to make of yet, I think a partial entry here wouldn't hurt and leave some room to add to it on what may be a small head fake to the downside, take a look and you'll see what I mean.
 This is the daily chart of FXP and when I put out this post FXP Update about a probable pullback/gap fill. 

I'd like to put FXP out as a new position for those interested or an add to, some of you may have even taken the gains and have been waiting for the signal to get back in.

 On a 60 min chart you can see to the far right that the gap fill is not yet complete, there's no rule that says it needs to be, but from a market mass psychology and behavioral perspective, I'd expect a gap fill and a head fake move just before the new trend to the upside resumes.

This is the 60 min chart, I'm not going through all of the reasons I love FXP (long), but the Channel Buster was a gift allowing us to get in and this 60 min chart's base/divergence is SUBSTANTIAL, it can support a LOT more upside.


Near term the charts are interesting as they have divergences that have accrued like this 5 min positive in the flat trading range (blue), you see the day before in which I had posted about a gap fill the day before (linked above).

The 10 min chart has the same accrued accumulation

As does the 15 min chart which makes the 1-3 min charts seem a bit odd...

The 3 min chart is not showing a positive as I'd expect and I suspect until it does, the timing to enter FXP will not be pinpoint.

We have a small lateral consolidation, this is where we often see a lot of underlying activity (3C) as the rest of the market is looking at price thinking, "Boring".

I suspect we may get a little run on stops of to suck in some shorts just below the range/"W" consolidation and I'm guessing that's where the intraday charts will fall in line with the 5-15 min charts above.

"If" you like this one, I'd consider either a phased partial entry leaving some room in your risk management to add to in case of a head fake move on the downside and I'd definitely set price alerts to let you know if that happens.

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