Multiple Trend / Timeframe Analysis

Just to try to clear some things up for you between "Bounce", "Pullback", "Primary Stage 4 Decline" as all of these trends exist at once, depending on the timeframe you are trading, this is why we want to align our trades with a specific trend and that's a decision each of us has to make based on the time we have, the kinds of trades we prefer, account size, risk tolerance, etc.

So I'm going to use the SPY which is pretty much in line intraday as I'd expect with an op-ex pin in play for at least another hour.

I'm going to use the SPY as a proxy for the overall market as the signals are largely the same (so I'm not posting 3-4x as many charts).

 This is the 3 min chart, it's along the same lines asES's 5 min chart which both suggest a pullback, thus yesterday's VXX option/call position.

 The 5 min chart is suggesting the same thing.

The last 2 hours of the day today should provide us with better or additional signal information for next week, but as it stands, SPX futures and the SPY are showing the same thing, a short term pullback that is really in between what should be a larger move to the upside. Lets say short term (the charts above) are looking like a pullback, medium term are the charts in the 10-15 min range, even some 30 min charts suggesting a bounce as we have been looking for and primary trend being the large, highest probability trend (for instance if I was trading the Primary trend only, I'd be short as we are with core positions and just leave that position in place and 6 months from now (that's only an example) that trend should be very much in the money and doing well as it is the highest probability, I wouldn't even be concerned about any trend shorter than that.

 SPY 10 min is transitionary between the bounce base that is in place and a near term pullback negative divegrence.

The 30 min chart would be the medium term or bounce as there's a substantial base and divergence suggesting the bounce we have been talking about.

The 60 min chart clearly shows nothing but distribution, this would be the primary trend.

So you could trade any or all of these trends, but you have to align your trades with the timeframes and trends you are trading.