Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Not a lot of reaction to Chicago PMI / Japanese PMI

I suppose because this is one of the noisier PMIs out there. Last month Chicago PMI had its biggest miss in 12 months, today we get the biggest beat in about 6 months.

Not a lot of movement from the 9:45 Chicago PMI release

The print at 63 vs consensus of 56.9 and more from Bloomberg the weather issues are somewhat  interesting considering Q1 GDP which came in just above contraction (two consecutive quarters of negative readings= recession and the first print of Q1 GDP was very close at 0.1%_...

Highlights
Big swings are common for the Chicago PMI which jumped to 63.0 this month from 55.9 in March to signal major acceleration in monthly growth for the Chicago economy. Exact details of this report are not immediately available to the public, but the report does note strong gains for new orders and backlog orders and a plus-70 reading for production. The report also notes solid expansion in employment. The report cites improved weather and improved consumer demand for the outsized gains, ones that point to strength for April's run of economic data. Markets are showing no initial reaction to today's report.


As for Japan's Markit Manufacturing PMI released yesterday, it dropped at the fastest pace ON RECORD! The print came in at a contractionary 49.4 (this is not the same as GDP/recession) from the last print of 53.9, this is the first contractionary print since 2/2013 and the biggest monthly decline EVER! Japanese Manufacturing output is falling at the fastest pace since December of 2012. 


To add salt to the wound, Japan's Labor Ministry said monthly wages fell for a 22nd consecutive month with the biggest drop of 2014, add inflation from the low Yen eating up consumers' buying power and it's ugly.


On top of that, while we are on Japan, the Bank of Japan (Central Bank) said, "No QE" overnight disappointing some that had expected it sending the USD/JPY every which way overnight, but a trend is emerging...

USD/JPY

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