FOMC DAY

Today is one of those "Heavier" data days of the week, Monday was very light, the rest of the week though is pretty heavy and today would be one of the Heavy of heavies with the F_O_M_C at 2 p.m.

Although the noisy ADP Payrolls already came out with a beat for April (even though it's still April), coming in at 220k vs consensus of 210k with last month revised higher from 191k to 209k which would be the highest since 11/2013.

It was GDP that moved the Futures at 8:30...

 A shock to the USD/JPY as the Yen shot up and the $USDX dropped.

Of course ES (SPX E-mini Futures) followed in kind with a shot lower.

Here's the first estimate of US Q1 GDP from 8:30 this morning...

Note consensus at 1.1% and the actual print, 0.1%!!! This print is well below the low end of consensus of 0.5% and the high end at 2%! That was Joe LaVorgna by the way who was looking for "weather Impacted Q1 GDP of 2%.

The print is also down severely from a 2.6% Q4 reading, did weather really impact the US economy that much and if it did, SHOULD IT?

We still have Chicago PMI at 9:45, but as you know from the VXX call position (speculative) yesterday, we are expecting some early downside today, whether that is accumulated or not will say a lot, but with the F_O_M_C on deck, will it matter?

I have some more data for you on Japan which I'll put out in another post.

The main point I want to remind you of AS ALWAYS, and you know what's coming next....


BEWARE THE F_O_M_C (OR ANY F_E_D EVENT) KNEE JERK REACTION, WE ALMOST ALWAYS SEE THEM AND THEY ARE ALMOST ALWAYS WRONG OR RETRACED, SOMETIMES IN HOURS, WITH A 2 P.M. ANNOUNCEMENT IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE DAYS AS IS THE USUAL RANGE (A FEW HOURS TO A FEW DAYS).