Monday, April 7, 2014

Speculative Call Position Follow Ups

I may add some more, this isn't to overweight a portfolio on the long side, it's more for those who might want to participate, are okay with the speculative nature of the idea, but haven't had a chance to get involved yet, I'm still leaning heavily toward the bearish/short side and won't close any (likely won't unless there's a very good reason) because of a short term bounce.

What you should notice about most of these charts is that in the very short term they still look good for a trade (long), it's speculative and short duration so I prefer leverage, I think most are very close to moving.

However, the bigger trade here is to let price come to you and short price strength, you'll notice the longer charts are in horrible shape and as the bounce ends and the short term charts go negative we'll have a full house of negative charts from short term to intermediate and long Primary trend.

That's the real trade, letting the short come to you, but if you have the risk tolerance, the hitch-hiking trade with some leverage should work great and I think we are very close.

Trade Idea: NFLX Long   from Thursday April 3rd
 NFLX 2 min leading positive on the head fake / stop run move.

NFLX looks like it will get a decent bounce with 10 min positives like this one, but...

The stronger 60 min speaks for itself, this is why I think the real trade is shorting price strength and 3C weakness as the short term intraday charts start going negative on a bounce.

NFLX 4 hour... horrible...

TRADE IDEA: IWM CALL from Friday April 4th

 IWM 3 min

IWM also has a 10 min positive, it appears to be on this chart, 3C needed to lock the divergence in, it still hasn't locked it in so I'm not sure if this is lagging or a positive, I'm leaning toward a lag since it has had time since I captured and posted the chart and still it hasn't locked it in.

The 15 min chart speaks for itself, this is the entire Feb. cycle, remember I said the IWM is the first of the major averages to already hit stage 4?

And the 4 hour chart shows where the real primary trend probabilities are, this trade doesn't  need the leverage.

Trade Idea: AAPL Long from Friday April 4th
 AAPL I mentioned, the 2 min is doing exactly what was expected Friday afternoon as we got the typical clean post 2 pm signals.

We have a 3 min positive in to today as well

And a 5 min so for me this is worth a hitch hiking long, I prefer some leverage, but it is probably worthwhile without it.

And we don't have to go too far to see why AAPL is an asset I'd like to short any price strength whether a new position or an add to and I don't think you need any leverage for this trade, AAPL short on a bounce.

I'll have a couple more as well as a market update as we are getting close.

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