Wednesday, April 23, 2014

VIX Futures & Short Term Futures Update

I'm not just updating the VIX futures (incl. VXX) because of open positions, but because they are another piece of the market puzzle and there are things going on there that fit with near term and longer term expectations, specifically for VXX we've been looking for a larger foot-print base and the "Flying Leading Positive Divergences" that only VXX and UVXY seem to be able to create (very extreme, near vertical divergences, likely because they are an asset based on fear and fear is the strongest market emotion, thus the most intense signals).

Here are the charts for VXX (Short term VIX Futures) and confirmation charts added in with UVXY (the 2x leveraged version of VXX).

 2 min There's a very good chance we get a head fake move like we saw in the broad market yesterday, except in this instance it would look like an upside down "Igloo with chimney", the chimney being the head fake move, especially if the market makes the move to take out the pivot highs half of the averages missed yesterday.

 3 min leading in a reversal pattern.

5 min leading positive, note the increased activity just the last day or so as if Wall St. knew where the target area was, which they essentially would. Remember because of the size they trade in, it takes them longer to put a position together, thus the reversal process.

 This is a VERY clean flying leading divergence on a 10 min chart, these are the kinds of signals I'm looking for. This can get much more extreme with VXX/UVXY, we've seen it right before significant turns to the downside.

Look at that leading 15 min!

This is an hourly, because VXX is a rolling long position of the first and second month a cumulative indicator isn't used in the same manner, but we can compare what the urgency back a month or so vs. now and it looks like a large leading positive position right now even though there was a positive that started a small launch to the upside in March.

Actual VIX Futures...
 This is what I'm very interested in, these flat, tight ranges, these are where we see the most underlying movement although you'd never know it by price alone, but look at the divergence.

This is a 30 min version, again, a lot of leading positive action in a very small, condensed trading range.

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