Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Watching for Triangle Head Fake

*** I thought this published around 1:50, but apparently not.  I need to get this out before the next post.

This triangle has been there most of the morning and afternoon in most of the averages, it's a symmetrical triangle in most cases like the SPY below...
 This is a symmetrical triangle in the SPY, it has no inherent bias on its own, it's a consolidation/continuation pattern so the preceding trend determines whether it's a bullish or bearish triangle, being the preceding trend was down, this would be expected to break to the downside and start the next leg lower according to technical analysis, this is where technical analysis is used against traders, head fake moves which we may see and in some cases be able to use for either profit taking or short term trade entries.

Before I could get this post started the break already occurred.

Note that even volume looks like a textbook triangle. Remember the SPY and DIA both hit the second upper target we had set and did so yesterday, that doesn't mean they can't move more, but they did hit that area whereas the QQQ and IWM did not.

The QQQ triangle is a bearish triangle, Descending triangle...
This is today's QQQ descending triangle that carries a bearish implication with it and should follow a downtrend as a consolidation/continuation pattern, these are the kinds of price patterns that retail technical traders will short as the break below support of the triangle represents price confirmation, thus they make for easy head fake set ups, but we need to see 3C evidence of that before we call that out, it would be helpful in giving the market upside momentum if it were to try for the remaining upside targets as a mini short squeeze would take hold.

I'll let you know what the 3C signals are as the move develops a little more, we need to see some decent volume to know that the ploy worked.

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