Friday, May 23, 2014

$1899.61 and Counting

$1900 is a definitive psychological magnet, I find it hard to believe we could be so close on the SPX and not tag it, but I also see lots of weakness there so I don't expect much, maybe something similar to the last break above resistance with a candlestick reversal pattern like this...
That's a clear reversal pattern with the strong breakout candle the first day, the loss of momentum with a Shooting Star (bearish reversal candle) and a confirmation candle the 3rd day.

The thing is, there's lots of little goodies above $1900, increased volume means more volume rebates, but more than that, it means more in the way of the pennies that =a lot of money on the bid/ask spread, it also sets up some nice trades.

As for the charts, more damage today (although the market is showing a lot of rotation, I suspect it's not as much as we'd see in a healthy market, but after years of QE and EVERYTHING moving together, it seems to be more significant).

I suspect by the lack of TICK breadth negativity that we are seeing a lot of short squeeze activity, just look at NFLX.

Charts...
 DIA 1 min

More importantly, especially given VXX data, DIA 2 min

IWM 1 min and again more importantly...

IWM 3 min, this is the most these averages have lost in a 1 or 2 day period since last Friday when this theory was put forth.

 QQQ 1 min intraday like the rest, but beyond that...

Lots of damage-5 min

SPY 2 min, lots of downside today alone

SPY 3 min.

I'm thinking something similar to the first chart of this post is a likely resolution, which is nice as volume will be back up as most traders are already in the Hamptons, remember the US is closed Monday, so Tuesday would be the day we'd be looking for that star, also the best entry area.

No comments: