A Few Broken Levers

I still need to take a look at USD/JPY, but I don't feel it's that pressing because of the earlier charts with $USDX negative out to 60 mins, that's where the probabilities are and all shorter term charts almost always resolve toward the probabilities, in short, the USD/JPY lever is about done and it was all that was left yesterday.

$1900 is now in the rear-view mirror, it's just too much of a psychological magnet for the market not to hit it with all the little goodies as price passes $1900, however this is more about the broken levers and the probability of a 3-day candlestick pattern (today being the first) like I posted here, $1899.61 and Counting.

The SPX has to move, what +0.44% to hit $1900, not even.

In any case, the candlestick pattern (and I'm forecasting this based on the condition of the charts and levers available) would look like the chart posted already,

That's a common candlestick reversal pattern.

As for the levers, they'd be HYG, TLT and VXX.

 HYG's longer term 15 min chart already has seen some pretty intense leading negatives very quick (2-days). Not too surprisingly, the intraday HYG went very negative just as the SPX was pulling in to $1900, I'm sure they figured it was a done deal and they don't want to be caught without a seat holding HYG when the music stops.

TLT, which went positive yesterday and forced me to close TBT, Closing TBT (long) For now, looks like it will fill the gap early Tuesday, that would give us the shooting star, the second candle of the 3-day formation on Tuesday as TLT moves (generally) opposite the market.

The 5 min positive in TLT is also a higher probability for more upside there (downside in the market), but has a relative negative (weaker form of divegrence) which also suggests a gap fill and some kind of star, doji, hanging man or shooting star in the SPX Tuesday.

Wednesday would be the confirmation (downside reversal) candle with a move lower below Tuesday's close and in to Friday's body (range) or even below it with an engulfing pattern.

This is a pretty specific forecast, but it's just based on what I see in Futures and charts.

TLT's 10 min is leading positive, the gap fill on Tuesday would round out the "U" shaped reversal pattern nicely.

And as for VIX short term futures, this is leading like mad, there seems to definitely be real demand that is holding price together here.

More confirmation and note it hasn't broken under yesterday's low where it found support and spot VIX actually closed up after more than 8% down the previous day.

There's also a nice reversal pattern in place there.

I'm really looking at raising cash where I can for Dry powder early next week, TBT was part of that.

And VXX /UVXY 15 min leading positive, I'm not sure if there's a head fake move already in place here or not, I don't think it matters much with signals like this.

For more information on all of these assets (except HYG), see the earlier Futures update as it confirms the VIX and Treasuries.

Futures Update