Friday, May 30, 2014

Early Indications

The first hour or so of trade had been right in line, very boring, no divergences to speak of intraday except in a lot of watchlist equities, the averages though were still looking a lot like that "pin" type action.

The trend this entire week has been one of distribution which is about right considering we didn't really break in to head fake territory until last Friday, which from a head fake concept, wouldn't start to see distribution until the head fake creates the scenario that it was meant to, which is to create demand to sell in to at the best prices possible.

VERY recently this morning, several of the averages are getting a little more ugly than I'd expect for an op-ex pin and the USD/JPY is still unable to do anything to lift them.

 SPY with a little of this week's trend, but a clear lack of confirmation of current price on even the fastest 3C version which could have confirmed this move in 30 mins without any trouble, but it hasn't.

This is the longer term view of the same chart above showing the trend this week as we have been above range resistance, distribution which is how we confirm a head fake from a real breakout.

 TICK breadth intraday has fallen off very fast, not the normal transition.

The DIA is much like the SPY in not confirming very recent price action at all.

And showing distribution through the entire week when looking at the trend.

 This is the IWM's trend, I'm using a slightly longer, more important 10 min chart for emphasis.

This is why I suspect more and more positions are looking "Trade-Idea" ready or very close after nearly 2 months of Trade Ideas falling off by about 90% during the choppy range bound market in which the SPX had a +/-3% range, just an absolute meat grinder.


 Intraday the IWM looks like it's finding some support.

And the Q's in to this morning, there are a lot of assets on the Watchlists that are looking very interesting so I'll be a little quiet as I'm going through numerous watchlists and looking for timely ideas.

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