Market Update

Yesterday my first impression was that short entries to fill out partial positions or new positions wouldn't become available until after the op-ex pin is removed which is typically around 2 p.m., there are several charts , actually almost all of the charts that not only suggest that entering or adding to those shorts after 2 p.m. is the right time, but that entering them period is reasonable at this time.

Remember this move above the range was something we expected conceptually, but there was no accumulation to support it and few levers working, it was largely built around a short squeeze off a bear flag and Crazy Ivan which is to say, the MARKET USED TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AGAINST TECHNICAL TRADERS  as we often see.

 Speaking of using TA against traders, the first thing you may have noticed is a bear flag forming on the intraday charts, technical analysis expects this to break down and make a new low approx. the same as the preceding move down just before the flag formed, however the very appearance of a flag or well known technical price pattern has to give you pause and make you think twice about what it's really doing there.

If this flag is to be head faked, with the deterioration all this week in the charts, any upside this afternoon as the op-ex pin gives way would be a better entry, especially since we already have strong evidence that distribution this week is not only there, but has increased today; you'll see all of these concepts in the averages below.

 DIA 2 min is showing increased distribution, there's already a large trend of it for the week.

This 10 min chart makes that clear. Also notice there was NO accumulation at the recent lows leading to the break above the range, this is what I was talking about above, it was done via manipulation of traders expectations based on a price pattern and that led to a short squeeze that did most of the heavy lifting.

The fact that Wall St. is not even willing to put in a small amount of accumulation to press the market above the range is also telling as they'd have to first dump those longs and then sell additional supply short, it seems they didn't want to take on even that risk.

 1 miin intraday DIA is pretty close to in line which doesn't tell us much, but there's also no bear flag on the chart.

 IWM 3 min continuing to deteriorate at a reversal process.

The larger trend on a 10 min chart which is excellent confirmation of this week's move being a head fake move and not a genuine breakout, however we expected a head fake move days/week before it started.

IWM 1 min intraday was in line with the downside, but is showing some intraday strength at its bear flag.

QQQ deterioration today as we have seen all day...

The 10 min chart reflecting distribution in to this week's move above the range, the head fake move expected and it looks like excellent confirmation it is a head fake move, which makes it a VERY useful entry point for short positions.

 And 1 min intraday, Q's went negative, then were in line as they lost ground today and now like the IWM have a 1 min intraday positive forming at the bear flag area, a bear flag is a bearish consolidation/continuation pattern, if it were a real bear flag we'd see distribution in to the flag, I suspect this is to set up a head fake move intraday which is why it would be useful to use to enter short positions.

SPY losing a lot of ground today and the bear flag in yellow, this is not a large price pattern, nothing like the bear flag that got us here and it's not even able to push a 2 min chart to a more positive position.

SPY 30 min trend for the move above the range/head fake, again note the last decent accumulation was mid-April.

This is the 1 min SPY with a positive in to the bear flag.

 The NYSE TICK trend is now showing signs of a trend change, but not before it hit -1100 on the downside.

And my custom TICK indicator lost breadth all day until very recently at the bear flag formation.

Time to get busy with asset choices.