NFLX Trade Idea Follow Up

On May 28th I opened a NFLX short, Trade Idea: NFLX (short) and these were the charts at the time, NFLX Charts

"I'm going to go ahead and add a half size trading position in NFLX right now, I'll leave a little room in case we get some better prices or signals tomorrow, but the 3C signals are starting to deteriorate more rapidly and it's worth at least a partial position to me at this point, this will be an equity NFLX short.

I'd have no problem considering this a core short or position trade opening as well."

I feel   very   good about the NFLX short even though it was a partial (half) position with intention to adding to it in the event of better prices. If I did not have any exposure (short) to NFLX, I would be opening a partial position today.

As far as adding the other half, I'm going to wait, I'm thinking 1-2 days and I'll show you why.

 NFLX dominant 4 hour trend at a H&S top, probabilities for longer term resolution are solidly down.

There are only 3 places I'll short a H&S top, the top of the right shoulder is the second and that is where we appear to be right now.


 30 min, distribution at the left shoulder, head and right shoulder, note accumulation at the neckline to form the right shoulder.

The 15 min chart is leading negative, i'd like to see a new leading low, but more importantly I think the reversal process needs at least another day or 2, the left shoulder's took about 4-days.

 10 min also suggesting we are at the top of the right shoulder.

As far as price, I don't think there will be much difference between now and 2 more days, I think the main difference is timing which I try to get as close as possible.

This is today's intraday deterioration vs the recent 1 min trend, I think this could be a larger reversal process, especially considering top reversals are usually larger than bottom reversals.

2 min chart...

proportionately, I'd expect a larger reversal process, however I do want some exposure in case we have a July 2011 event in which we had a rather sharp  downside move -20%.

You can see that if we were to reverse straight down right now we'd have a very "V" shape reversal, these are very rare unless fundamental news that hasn't been discounted by the market hits, I want some exposure because of what I see in the averages, but as far as adding, I feel quite safe in giving it another day and deciding.

This area is the second best entry for a short position on a H&S top.