Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Keep an eye on USD/JPY $102

The Yen weakness 3C was signaling has started and USD/JPY is climbing, now at 101.83, heading for $102 resistance.

If it breaks through, we'll have a dead cat bounce look to the market, if not, then we'll see if it continues to try to build out its base. There are some signs in ES that there's some distribution, likely because traders figure $102 will hold as resistance at least 1 more time.

Either outcome would be fine with me, since we don't have strong enough probabilities for a short duration long position I'm only interested in shorting in to higher prices, if that comes by way of a dead cat bounce, so be it, if it comes by way of a base being built out a bit stronger to support a stronger move, then so be it.

But, $102 (USD/JPY) is KEY for the market
 USD/JPY with a minor negative as it moves closer to $102...

ES with an intraday negative as USD/JPY moves closer to $102, exactly where USD/JPY failed earlier today.

The 5 min USD/JPY base looks better, but it still could come down and look even better, which if the market did the same, then we might have some hitch-hiking long trades possible. MCP was not one of these, this was based on charts and earnings.
5 min USD/JPY

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