What's Really Moving the Market

As you know, yesterday we first saw a change in character of the confirmed intraday downtrend when the NYSE TICK trend gave early warning Market Update at 2 p.m.

Last night's Daily Wrap showed the 3C signals going from negative/in line to positive from about 2 p.m. to 4 p.m. and Leading Indicators went positive in many cases at the exact same time period, however...

What I really thought would move the market was this, again from last night's Daily Wrap

"Even though futures are still taking it on the chin tonight, I see positive $USDX divergences and negative Yen, that should lift USD/JPY and thus index futures and I suppose that's how we'll arrive at our near /short term bounce which is only being used as a timing marker to enter short trades in some size, FINALLY."

In fact here are the charts from last night for the individual currencies...

 $USDX positive divegrence, meaning a move higher following the 3C signal would move the USD/JPY higher and thus Index futures...

The Yen negative divergence, meaning a move lower here following the early 3C signal would also move the $USD/JPY higher and the index futures with it.

Even some VERY SMART pundits said earlier this morning that the Ukraine and SocGen's 13% decline in profits based on a 25+% decline in trading profits (after barclays posted a 41% decline for Q1 trading profits yesterday) were weighing on the market, but then when it heads higher, it's "Putin talks rescue the market" which were released pre-market this morning.

So how did we know last night, long before any "Putin news" that these individual currencies would move as they did below...

 The $USDX positive divegrence turns to a positive trend and...

The Yen negative divegrence turns to a negative trend as 3C warned yesterday,  thus...

The USD/JPY lifted (note there's a negative divergence in the USD/JPY right now as well as a positive divegrence in the Yen, both of which should bring ES back down a little intraday,

And of course this sent futures, as predicted last night long before "Putin News " this morning... 

Well... Higher as predicted. Note there's a negative divegrence forming in ES as well along with the FX pairs that moved it so an intraday pullback shouldn't be surprising and the fact that there''s still a reversal process, not a reversal event should have told you that as well.

The point being, every move the market makes someone has to find some reason it did it to explain to the masses when the real reasons were there long before the move, allowing us to predict the move and we are still predicting the next move.

The market is not a 30 second sound bite.

In any case, this is a good start for the moves we are looking for to enter the trades we are looking to enter. Just don't buy everything you hear, but I would pay attention to objective data that has lots of confirmation, it told the story yesterday long before the actual moves began.