Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Market Update

As volatile as the market is (interesting relative performance too today between the averages, DIA +.67% / QQQ -.93%) today, I do believe there is a reversal process that was first imagined yesterday, then we saw some hard data in 3C, TICK, Leading Indicators, etc. However I think to those just watching price, it's pretty difficult to make anything of this mess and that may be how they want it so they can get retail to chase price.

 First today's NYSE Tick data, for as bad as the market looks, intraday breadth has been leaning toward the more bullish as we see top side breadth readings of +1250-+1500, that's a lot of stocks moving up per bar. On the downside the extreme is about -1000, but not spending a lot of time down there. Notice there's no trend except a lateral mess, but the intraday breadth being on the positive side I believe is a hint we should pay attention to.

SPY 1 min looks like it's coming down a bit intraday soon, but I wonder if it puts in accumulation on the way.

There's a 5 min relative positive in the SPY, if a pullback intraday accumulated we'd start seeing stronger charts and migration.

The 1 min IWM has a positive divegrence and even though it's down about -.80%, note how the trend is turning sideways (green arrows above price).

 IWM 2 min is also seeing a larger positive divegrence being carved out. I'd expect continued volatile chop here, but more to the side than down.


QQQ 1 min is pretty much in line, I suspect it comes down to a.m. lows, what it does there will be very interesting to me as this is a very new, very immature divergence.

The QQQ 2 min however is leading positive so a pullback toward the a.m. lows may send this divergence to a new leading high which would be interesting and I may move a position like SQQQ around, I'm not sure yet.

You can see easily why the DIa is outperforming, this is the 1 min intraday with a positive at the dip on the 5th and at the lows today, but the next chart is more interesting.

Look at this 3 min chart, leading positive.

The DIA may even be a trade using a 3x leveraged long like UDOW, I wouldn't say we are anywhere near the confirmation needed to enter such a position, but as a hitch-hiking trade, if we get to that point, it may be worthy of consideration for short term traders.


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