NFLX Trade Set-up

This one is interesting because timing wise, it seems to fit just about right with the market.

First NFLX has been in trouble as far as the big picture goes, either a large top or perhaps already a break down and we've just seen the first counter trend rally....Either way, if I were long NFLX, I would be getting out.

 NFLX 4 hour chart.. You can see where NFLX's uptrend and 3C were in line or confirmation in 2012/2013, but into the end of 2013 trouble started to appear on a large scale at what may be a right shoulder of a large H&S top, then things got worse at the head area around February and in to March. As we moved to the next move up which is either a counter trend rally from the decline off the March highs or is the right shoulder of a large H&S top (Volume Analysis would confirm this as a H&S top) , in either case, 3C is making a lower high  as it should in a H&S top.

Assuming this is a large H&S top, the price pattern implied target would be a move down to approximately $150, this is a rough target based on the size of the top, they often tend to overshoot to the downside. This would also be a longer term target, not something that would happen in a month, although there could be a significant decline well worth trading from the top of the right shoulder which it appears we are forming now.

 Through some timeframes, this is the 5 min negative.

The 10 min leading negative, so it looks like we are right at the top of the last run up.

The 15 min chart also leading negative and getting a lot worse recently.

The 30 min leading negative.

The 4 hour chart alone suggests the direction of highest probability which is down.

VERY short term there's a 1 min intraday positive, pretty weak, but perhaps good for a short sale set up.

The psychological level of $400, a round number and centennial number was broken and then breached on large volume so longs chased the initial breakout and put a stop below $400 which hit a lot of stops as it moved below that this morning.

Looking at the 1 min intraday, I'd say there's a chance it runs up to about the same area which would make for a nice short entry, perhaps even a put position.

I'll be setting price alerts so I can keep tabs on this one and entry areas, the strategic short is there, the tactical is really there already, but we may be able to squeeze a little better positioning out of this one, although it's probably more than a little myopic.