This morning futures are down, some blame it on geopolitical risks including Iraq's incredibly genocidal insurgency which is now attracting the attention of the US Aircraft carrier, USS G.W. Bush as well as another ship loaded with 550 Marines, the US's largest embassy in the world, in Iraq, staffed by some 5500 people is being evacuated (to what degree is unknown) as it appears apparent the US will be launching air assaults on the sectarian (Sunni) ISIS insurgency which has bulldozed over all Iraqi security forces with unbridled brutality, releasing photos that are the buzz of the internet this weekend of mass executions of 1700 people at once, making this worse than the Gas attack in Syria (which we still don't know who launched). In any case, US fighters and drones should be over the skies soon as the insurgency has taken a town only 30 miles from Bagdad and has moved lightening fast from the north and south, converging on Bagdad.
Of course other geo-political tensions are on the rise, Ukraine's civil war saw it's bloodiest day this weekend as intelligence is released by the US that Russia is providing Pro-Russian forces with tanks and on the other hand more evidence of the US's involvement in the overthrow that started all of this is also released. Russia's state owned Gazprom which provides Ukraine with Natural Gas and about 1/3rd of Europe, just shut down all gas deloiveries to Ukraine unless they pay for the gas ahead of time, this is nearly impossible without outside assistance as they already have a $2+bn bill in arrears with Gazprom.
Also China and Vietnam are at each other's throats over the placement of an oil rig in waters each claim to be their own.
As for the market, last week we saw several small divergences (positive) getting started and promptly run over, the only time I've seen this is when there's a panic, AAPL was the last time I saw this as it lost -45%, however as of the close Friday some new, but still small divergences (positive) had taken shape and I'd say the probability for a bounce is higher than not, but it's still difficult to say, although a bounce would be perfectly normal at this point.
As for the averages...
As for the Index futures, they add a little more color for a bounce and the higher probability continued resolution of price...
And the leading negative 60 min suggest the same as the averages do.
As for Treasuries, I'll use the 30 year futures as an example but 5 and 10 year look similar, they look set for a pullback and then a resumption of an uptrend they seem to have just carved out a base to support (see TLT recently).
This action would fit and make sense with the normal Treasury/Equity relationship, but not the recent one (of the last several months seeing both rise).
As for Crude, geopolitical risks have driven it higher, but it looks like there may be some change in trend or at least a short term pullback which may make for an interesting trade.
As for Gold, it was my opinion last week a GDX/GLD pullback is close, gold futures show...
I confirmed several different gold/silver miners indices , all looked the same, very positive so it may be worth looking at individual names like HL, PAAS, GG, etc, although I prefer the 3x leverage of ?DUST/NUGT.
As for events this week, the main event iof the F_O_M_C at 2 p.m. Wednesday, they have made abundantly clear they are not comfortable with investor complacency and the lofty valuations, I would not be surprised if they moved up an interest rate hike time table or came out with some other hawkish comment to knock the market down.
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