Monday, June 16, 2014

Opening Indications

I'm putting together an interesting set of charts that I went through this weekend, especially as it pertains  to not only the macro market, but more specifically miners (both Gold -primarily and silver).

In any case, even though it's very early in the day still, the averages and the Index futures have both seen early negative intraday divergences at the a.m. bounce highs, using the SPY as an example...

 The positive divergences I talked about Friday that are still quite weak in most averages as we had at least 2 sets last week run over, as I said the last time I remember that happening (clearly any way) was the decline (early) from AAPL's all-time highs as a panic selling mode set in which brought AAPL from all time highs, down -45% in 8 months, almost cut in half! The early positives, one which I chased to get better shorting position in AAPL near the highs, crumbled as panic sellers flooded the same small door all at the same time.

I wouldn't say these divergences (positive, but still weak) which I thought may bounce up until the F_O_M_C Wednesday, are run over, it's too early to determine that, but it's not a great start, index futures confirm and TICK data is coming in at -1400 this morning!!! A VERY bearish EXTREME.

 This morning's negative at intraday bounce highs.

 And as I said, most of these are not well developed or very strong, thus the reason I'm not keen on trying to chase them, this is the SPY 5 min chart with no hint of a positive, just the negative sending it lower from its highs as we expected for last week.

There were several trades in which a bounce would set up a nice entry, allowing the trades to come to us. NFLX was mentioned Friday, NFLX (Long Term) Trade Set-Up

 This is part of the small positive divegrence in NFLX that I suspected might give a second chance to any who were considering NFLX short, but didn't want to chase it down.

 This is this morning's action with an intraday negative at the NFLX small bounce highs.

PCLN was also mentioned as the same kind of trade idea, For Those PCLN Hunters
 Here's the negative sending it lower which we don't want to chase and a positive that is large enough for a bounce that can be used to short in to as the strategic view of PCLN looks quite bad...

PCLN 4 hour leading negative as it seems to have already have hit a top.

However again this morning, PCLN's bounce attempt ran in to early selling.

AAPL was another recent idea along the exact same lines, mentioned in Thursday's Daily Wrap, looking for a bounce to short in to.
 The 3 min positive divergence

 The longer term 60 min chart (see the update as there are many charts in line all negative as I have been watching and waiting for a set-up in AAPL...

And this morning's action.

This is the same as the market action. As I said, until the strongest positives like AAPL's 3 min are taken out, these can't be considered as "run-over yet, but if they are, it would be the 3rd time in less than a week and that has tended to indicate panic selling in the past, although rare to see.

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