This hasn't been an easy market to track today, it looks a lot like there's not much underlying trade, a lot like a text-book consolidation of yesterday's move, however I'd normally expect to see stronger distribution of a move of price strength intraday if that was the case.
My original thinking this morning was that the positive divegrence started late yesterday after a -1700 TICK print which acts like a short term oversold indication, was that we'd see a move down and more to the right (sideways) overall allowing for enough of a positive divegrence to create a real bounce that we'd see selling in to.
Right now I can't say this is anything more than exactly what it looks like although there are hints of some distribution, they are on a very small scale and they'd have to show up at some point even if the goal was to create a positive divegrence big enough to allow for a decent bounce as we still would need price to come down to put in those larger positives. The way most charts sit, they are either in line or slightly negative so VERY short term trade is still a bit mysterious.
Looking at intraday Index futures, ES has a negative divegrence, TF (IWM) has the worst, leading negative and NQ (QQQ) has the one that is closest to in line, but given TF's I can't see any way that it can keep moving higher without a significant intraday pullback here.
IWM 1 min is in line, however there was no positive divegrence here whatsoever to kick start it.
IWM 2 min has a relative negative divegrence, there is a positive that started to form late yesterday and in to this morning's open.
The 3 min chart for IWM has nothing even close to in line, I can't say this is strong distribution, but it's not confirmation either, this is more in line with the TF signals intraday.
QQQ 1 min positive which was forming on intraday updates late yesterday, the green arrow is in line and a small relative negative at the red.
Again, like the IWM, 2 min QQQ has not kept pace and is in a small leading negative position, suggesting intraday downside, what happens at that point is the next question to put the next piece of the short term puzzle together.
QQQ 3 min is in line, I suspect the 2 min has not migrated over here yet, but there was also no positive divegrence to distribute.
SPY 1 min was in line and losing momentum, now a slight negative along the lines of ES.
Like QQQ and IWM, the 2 min SPY is also in leading negative position, again I can't say this is distribution on any significant scale, so what comes during an intraday decline will tell us a lot about the next moves and how we might use them.
The SPY 3 min looks a lot like the other charts in this timeframe, not much to distribute and largely in line or just following price with no significant underlying action at all.
It appears as if the TICK is actually breaking the trend for intraday trade, below the channel will be decisive and it's close, this is something you can watch to give you early warning for intraday movements.
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