Trade Idea: (short term) DUST long & NUGT / GDX trade Management

I really hope this is not a mistake, but at the same time I have to follow what the market is telling me and not make the mistake of falling in love with a position, which is easy to do with a trade like GDX/NUGT long as the return of nearly 50% in such a short period definitely grows on you.

As you know I already took half (profits) of the NUGT position off the table, I wanted to leave the other half just in case and then re-enter the  half taken off at the end of a NUGT pullback so long as it was constructive which is what I "thought" I was seeing yesterday even though in yesterday's post, GDX / NUGT Constructive Pullback,  I even mentioned...

"Yesterday when I exited half the long NUGT position... The idea was/is that a GDX/NUGT pullback is what I call a "constructive pullback", not distribution, but rather accumulation in to the pullback which makes for an excellent long entry or add to when the pullback looks to have ended as we have confirmation that there was accumulation of the pullback...Already this morning on a pullback of only 1.22 and 3.60% (GDX/NUGT respectively), we are already seeing signs of accumulation of the pullback which is unusual as the accumulation portion usually starts as price nears the lows of the pullback target area..."

Upon reflection, perhaps what we were seeing yesterday was in anticipation of today's bounce rather than the start of a constructive pullback as even yesterday it seemed too early and out of place.

We still have a +40% gain in NUGT on the remaining half position which is still significant and drawdown that I'd rather not sit through if there's good reason to make a change.

The safest play would probably be to exit NUGT and either put the cash in the dry powder fund or use it elsewhere for a short time, but I'm not looking to sit on the sidelines if there's a reasonable chance at adding to the gains by reversing the NUGT position and going long DUST for a pullback play on GDX/NUGT.

The GLD charts also seem to support the pullback view as I've also seriously considered a GLD put as the leveraged short Gold ETFs are very low volume.

The daily chart looks like this...

Here are the moving averages (blue=200, red=100, yellow=50), a break of the 100/200 at the same area would trigger a lot of technical trades (short) and the 50-day (yellow) would be an obvious target..

 The 60 min Trend Channel that I've been using for a near term stop has held the entire trend on this chart, but was stopped out yesterday clearly.

Yesterday's bearish engulfing candlestick (red arrow) is also confirmation of the downside reversal set up at the two yellow arrows,  which is a Harami reversal, today would essentially be considered noise.

The gap (orange) was an initial target as the 10-day was in the area, but that looks a bit too shallow.

Remember a big part of a pullback is a constructive pullback, smart money isn't going to chase miners, they are going to buy on the pullback so we'd have evidence of their buying before re-entering NUGT long which is ultimately the trade I like, however, significant draw-down on a pullback is not what I'd like to sit through when those resources could be used to make some solid gains until it's time to re-enter GDX/NUGT long.

Also today's candlestick with the longer upper wick is a rejection of higher prices (resistance).

 The 1 min GDX trend still favors a pullback. I'm not saying this is a perfect set-up, but it looks high probability.

The 10 min also favors a pullback

As dpoes the NUGT 15 min chart which is a bit longer of a chart than I'm comfortable sitting through.

Even GDX 30 min which has had good upside confirmation is showing at least a small negative all the way out on a 30 min chart.

And NUGT (it seems the more leverage ETFs have, the better/stronger/faster the signal they give).

As for DUSt, the 3x inverse GDX or opposite NUGT, this isn't the best set-up I've seen, but if NUGT and GDX go down, DUST must go up.

Here we have a clean/clear 15 min positive, it doesn't surprise me that there aren't many charts beyond 15 min as we are tracking smart money and they have large positions, it probably wouldn't be practical to enter a large position and try to get out of it on a pullback trade, thus I'm not too worried about charts not stretching further than 15 mins.

 The 10 min isn't beautiful, but it has been accurate and is positive right now.

As is the 3 min trend.

I think I'll take the remaining gains from NUGT and use them to enter DUSt long for a pullback in NUGT, bounce in DUST and when it's time , close DUST and re-enter NUGT long.

The only thing is intraday timing, I'll set some upside price alerts because I think we get an intraday bounce and that's where I want to execute the trade. I'm thinking somewhere above the 5 min 50-bar in the NUGT $43.25 range, I'll be watching intraday charts.

 intraday NUGT 1 min looks like a small bounce

As does the 2 min

The 3 min

And the 5 min.

Beyond that, I think the bigger move is going to be down so I'll let you know just before I execute, unless something in the bounce changes the dynamics which I doubt.