Monday, June 30, 2014

Unusual Behavior

It's not often that you catch these glimpses and if you didn't see it while it happened, chances are you wouldn't notice it on a chart after the close, looking back, but so many assets were effected at once on what seemed to be nothing more than a typical intraday correction in price, it apparently was something more as 3 of the 4 major averages went on to make a lower low on the last day of window dressing when they usually hammer the market the most with a VIX whack-a-mole. However tone all day has been weak, but there was something significant about this moment which came just after I had seen enough to fill out an SRTY position, actually a bit bigger than normal, Trade Management: SRTY which was posted  at 2:49 as the event was occurring around 2:30-ish to 3:05.


NOT the VIX slam you'd expect near the close, especially on the final day of the quarter...

 This isn't the afternoon norm for the VIX, t's moving toward the highs of the day when it's usually whacked around 3 p.m.

In fact...
VXX and UVXY (Short term VIX Futures) both saw disproportionately large positive divergences right at the same time, this is a 5 min moving to a leading positive divegrence intraday over the course of an hour or so (which is significant because 5 min charts are the first timeframe in which we typically se institutional size activity intraday.


 SPY (red) vs VIX (green), the move in VIS seems a bit disproportionately strong.

Even the Most Shorted Index being squeezed in to the last hour of the day couldn't keep the SPY, QQQ and DIA from making a lower low- these two almost never diverge.

The averages had been weak all day, but saw disproportionate moves at that period...
 DIA intraday weak all day


 However at that moment, the 5 min chart had been quite negative in to the move which is part of what I was seeing and why I filled out SRTY (3x short IWM), the move intraday in the 5 min DIA chart is quite extreme for that timeframe.

 The IWM 1 min saw a very sharp leading negative divegrence right in to the move or just before.

As the longer 2 min faded off the rest of the day

The Q's which had been closest to inline the longest saw a sharp move at the time as well

Followed by a lower low in price.

Even the 10 min chart reacted.

As did the SPY 5 min as shown earlier. which was already showing weakness, thus SRTY position, but even sharper in to the move.

And that carried all the way out to a 10 min chart intraday.

This is the huge volume spike in the 5, 10 and 30 year treasury futures right toward the end of the move down in the index futures and averages.
Huge volume at the same time in all 3 TReasury futures toward the lows of that move.

I'm going to update breadth and charts and see what else was going on.

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