A.M. Update

Conventional wisdom seems to be that Obama's new Russian sanctions caused a major risk-off sentiment overnight, the is certainly true for Russia where the market is hitting 6-week lows and the apparent Russian jet shooting down a Ukraine jet obviously aren't helping tensions. However I think yesterday's added F_E_D hawkishness was a  major shift in US markets as rate hikes are being pulled forward and much more aggressive.

Espirito Santo's dead cat bounce yesterday seems to be over already and contagion risks back on the European table.

MSFT's layoff of 18,000 employees ( 3 times more than expected) hasn't helped either.

This morning's Initial Claims came in at 6 month highs, but once seasonal adjustments were applied as I mentioned yesterday (the unemployment rate is the easiest to manipulate) the 47+k print, the worst in over 6 months ended up beating at 3k lower than last week!

As far as what the risk catalyst has been (I suspect I know as you know ...F_E_D_) the market has not been responding well.

Take the bounce for this week thus far, here's the tone in the SPY and QQQ

 SPY 3 min chart since the bounce started has seen pure distribution

 The SPY 5 min

Here's yesterday's weakness building in quickly in QQQ 3 min

And the overall QQQ 5 min chart since the bounce started this week.

The IWM continues to be a different story.

 Yesterday's intraday IWM 1 min chart with strong improvement.

The overall 10 min chart still in a reversal process base and ready to spring.

Yesterday I said a move below support was all that was needed, this morning...

It looks like we'll get that so I'll be looking for bounces on an IWM bounce to short in to as this market is falling apart at the seams.