Market Update

Things are still looking bleak for the market this morning/noon as there was some pretty significant damage late yesterday as well as through all the week, I suspect there may be a change later in the afternoon, but I don't have solid evidence for that, other than the IWM's mid term charts which would suggest a bounce still in the IWM, which as of yesterday, I was only waiting for a move below support which already occurred on the open.

The tone is decisively risk off as the TICK Index is hitting lows of -1600 which os very close to the lowest I've seen.

 SPY / TICK Custom indicator has been bearish all morning.

This leads me to believe either we'll see a short term oversold event as I suspect because of the IWM or the market has just broken.

 SPY intraday has been in line with the downtrend this morning, which is pretty significant confirmation, it leads me to believe we'll hit an oversold status soon or a capitulation selling event, or as I have been saying, we are in the red zone, a broken market really could occur at anytime which is why I refuse to move any core shorts for trading reasons, it's time to stay with the macro trend unless an unbelievable opportunity pops up.

 3 min SPY, as has been the case all week has shown very strong distribution trends ever since the bounce started. Note the rounding look of the SPY since the bounce this week, this is VERY toppy behavior.

 SPY 10 min larger view, the toppy behavior on a larger basis.

Here's a closer look at the 10 min chart, there has been a lot of damage done, it's much worse on longer charts, but it is the intermediate and short term charts that are signaling timing indications for the macro trends.

QQQ 1 min intraday also in line with the drop of over -.80%

The 2 min chart's trend since the bounce this week, immediate selling on any strength, I doubt this was the original plan, but as the F_E_D gets more aggressive with its message and messengers, I suspect timelines for set-up cycles have been moved forward and we are very close to an AAPL like decline in which the hedge fund herd breaks up and moves to an "Every man for himself" attitude in which selling first and fast in the priority.

 QQQ 5 min really shows the extent of bounce damage which is to say the extent of distribution/short selling on any strength at all.

IWM intraday like the other averages is in line as well, I'm waiting to see if this changes since the support line I expected to see break yesterday before an upside move has done so.

This is the 1 min chart zoomed out so there is still a good case to be made for an IWM bounce, the yellow trendline is the head fake area I have been looking for, but I would not say we have strong accumulation of the move as of yet, although this chart pushes probabilities in that direction.

 IWM 5 min also hints at a decent move higher.

We even have a positive IWM out to 10 mins that has held up.

The 60 min is the direction of highest resolution, my SRTY position is at a decent profit already.

And the TICK thus far hitting -1600 and the trend clearly has sellers in control.